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解读:8月制造业PMI回升 经济稳中趋升态势延续

2017-09-05 07:06:47   央广网

综合情况,8月工业增长率比7月提高的概率较大,企业生产经营活跃,资金循环情况较顺畅,近期的经济运行应该呈现出稳中趋升的发展态势。

■中国经济时报记者 陈婧

近日,国家统计局服务业调查中心与中国物流与采购联合会发布的8月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为51.7%,为年内次高点,比上月上升0.3个百分点。8月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为53.4%,比上月回落1.1个百分点。对此,业内人士表示,结合8月制造业PMI和非制造业PMI指数可以看出,企业生产经营活跃,资金循环情况较顺畅,同时,非制造业总体仍延续扩张态势。近期的经济运行应该呈现出稳中趋升的发展态势。未来整个经济保持平稳增长的概率较大,增长底部已经总体建立。  

制造业PMI回升国内外市场需求总体平稳

此前,国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示,8月份制造业PMI指数呈现以下特点:8月份供需双双继续改善。在国内市场向好的带动下,进口稳中有升。结构调整不断推进,部分传统行业生产经营状况有所好转。黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学原料和化学制品制造业等行业PMI持续位于扩张区间,本月增速均有所加快。

国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群对中国经济时报记者表示,可以看到,虽然今年4月份和7月份的一些经济指标有向下调整,但经济增速换挡的底部已经建立,很快就调整上去了,这表明月度经济指标的下行和过去趋势性的下行完全不同。不论是5月主要经济指标的走稳,还是8月第一个经济指标——制造业PMI的回升并持续13个月在荣枯线以上都支持这一判断。

张立群具体分析说,生产指数提高了0.6个百分点,意味着8月份的工业增长率相比7月份有所提高。另外,和需求相关的指标,包括新订单指数、新出口订单指数以及在手订单指数等有一些波动。其中,8月份新订单指数上升0.3个百分点,新出口订单指数下降0.5个百分点,表明出口增速有下降趋势,但是下降幅度不是很大。在手订单指数下降0.2个百分点,主要反映了企业的交货、销售等速度都在提高。而新订单和出口订单是主要的补充渠道,新订单指数有所提高,出口订单指数有所下降,表明国内外市场向着不同方向变化,但是上升和下降幅度都不大,支持经济增长平稳的市场需求的条件目前仍在继续保持,综合判断国内外市场需求总体平稳。此外,与企业生产经营相关的指标,比如采购量指数、购进价格指数、进口指数等都在上升,特别是对未来生产经营的预期指数也在提高,表明市场信心在增强,企业的生产经营活动仍保持活跃状态。

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