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一线城市库存规模降至历史底部

2017-09-04 07:35:55   新华网

有机构近日发布报告指出,截至2017年7月底,该机构监测的80个城市新建商品住宅库存总量为40211万平方米,环比减少0.5%,同比减少11.1%。当前库存规模相当于2013年9月的水平。对此,专家指出,库存量跌落至4年前的水平主要是受到分类调控的指导方针影响,已经基本可以断定楼市“去库存”时代将要结束了。

国家统计局最新数据显示,截至今年7月末,全国商品房待售面积为63496万平方米,比2016年初的高点下降了约14%。2016年之前,由于楼市整体呈现低迷,整体楼市库存过大,管理层不断出台政策来鼓励“去库存”。去库存收到了一定的效果,目前看去库存时代即将结束,今后一段时期楼市政策仍将以调控为主。

  数据

  80城市库存已回落到4年前水平

国家统计局从2010年开始公布商品房待售面积,用以反映市场的库存水平。根据历史数据,2011年末,全国商品房待售面积为27194万平方米。但随后,该指标逐年攀升,到2016年2月达到高点,为73931万平方米。自2011年末到2016年初的四年间,全国商品房库存增加了约170%。

随着房地产交易的升温,从2016年2月开始,整体库存逐渐下降。根据统计局数据,到今年7月末,全国商品房待售面积为63496万平方米,比2016年初的高点下降了约1亿平方米,降幅约为14%。已经恢复到2015年初的水平。

克而瑞近日也发布报告指出,截至2017年7月底,该机构监测的80个城市新建商品住宅库存总量为40211万平方米,环比减少0.5%,同比减少11.1%。当前库存规模相当于2013年9月的水平。

  焦点

  一线城市库存规模接近历史最低水平

相比较而言,北上广深这样的一线城市的库存量一直不算大,由于需求较大,土地的供给短缺,其去库存的压力并不大。自2010年以来,北京商品房可售规模的变动幅度基本不大,去化周期大多维持在10个月上下的水平,最长也不足18个月,最短时仅为6个月。相反,去库存的重点地区在三四线城市。

但今年以来,三四线城市库存过剩局面也已经大为改善。据克而瑞统计,2016年,三四线城市新开工面积同比仅增5.5%,远低于全国(8.1%)和40个大中城市(12.1%)的水平。从2012年以来的储备和去化来看,当前三四线城市的去化周期仅为1.46年,同样略低于全国平均水平及40个大中城市的水平。

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