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房价将怎么走?这份调查是这么说的
2017-09-02 07:35:56 中国经济网
随着楼市调控政策的持续收紧,房地产市场降温已成了不争的事实。但政策的影响力能持续多久?未来房价又会怎么走?这是很多人更为关心的问题。就在近日,一份外媒的调查结果给出了答案。
预计中国住宅均价涨幅将继续收窄。据路透社最新季度调查结果显示,在严厉调控政策和中性货币环境下,中国住宅均价今年将延续涨幅收窄之势,但三四线楼市超预期的表现将为房价提供一定支撑,预计全国住宅均价涨幅今年缩窄至6.8%,明年上半年还将继续收窄。
而关于政策的持续时间,超过一半的受访者预计本轮调控政策会持续到明年,时点上则有所差异,有认为到明年3月前后,到上半年,也有认为到年底,届时热点和去库存进展较好的部分城市可能有松动。
其他受访者未给出明确的时间点,强调本轮调控政策会在长效机制开始发挥作用后逐步退出。
长效机制建设和执行是关键。对于现有的楼市调控政策,财富管理机构嘉丰瑞德的分析师表示,一般来说,调控政策周期最长不超过三年,因为时间过长可能会削减政策的效力,所以要注重长效机制的建设。目前,国家对租房市场的大力推进,正是说明了楼市调控思路已发生转变。
在接受路透社调查的受访者中,多数人认为调控政策已没有必要再增加,关键还是看执行。同时,他们认为在长效机制上需要增加更多稳定市场供求关系的政策措施,比如包括房地产税在内的其他一些手段,结合户籍制度和人才导入的政策预计也会纳入到相关政策中。 东财
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