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中国经济处于新旧动能转换关键期

2017-09-03 08:45:51   新华网

7月中旬,今年上半年中国经济增长数据出炉,经济增长为6.9%,高于此前市场预期,极大地提振外界对中国经济整体增长的信心,同时也表明中国供给侧结构性改革成效显著,为进一步深化改革铺平了道路。当前,全国31省区市上半年经济数据均已出炉,从各地亮出的上半年GDP成绩单可知,各省区市正处于新旧动能加速转换的关键阶段,并不断迸发出经济增长的新动能。

为便于研究,笔者把中国划分为西部地区、中部地区、东北地区、京津冀地区、长三角和珠三角地区等几大板块。

第一是西部地区。整体来看,西部地区发展态势整体向好,消费需求的增长作用不容忽视,主要表现在以餐饮和旅游业的消费增长。同时,虽然整体上西部地区发展速度稍低于东部发达地区,但是西部地区的发展空间仍然较大,特别是以餐饮和旅游业等为主的经济增长点,在下半年仍然发力。

此外,单就亮点突出的西南地区而言。统计数据显示,西南地区上半年经济增长全部高于全国平均水平。其中,西藏更是以14.2%的速度位居全国第一。究其原因,中国东部向中西部地区转移的产业浪潮帮了“大忙”。今年上半年,中西部地区承接国内外产业转移成效初显、传统产业转型升级深入推进。例如上半年,重庆规模以上工业增加值按可比价格计算同比增长10.4%。此外,四川外贸进出口大幅增长。

第二是中部地区。今年上半年,中部地区经济增长仍是全国经济增长的“中流砥柱”。上半年,中部六省GDP增速处在6.9%至9%之间。但需要看到的是,很多资源大省经济好转,大多与煤炭市场等好转有关,比如山西,如果未来煤炭市场表现不佳,这些省份增长势必会再次跌落,所以,下半年经济增长还需要新的增长点,以带动经济持续发展。同时,也要注意经济发展的外部环境等支持因素,如民间投资下滑、民营经济发展动力不足等问题。所以,中部地区应有效落实民间投资各项政策,更好地激发民间投资活力。

第三是东北地区。东北地区的经济数据乍一看并不吸引人,辽宁、黑龙江上半年经济增速仅为2.1%、6.3%。但辽宁、吉林、黑龙江三省的半年报“成绩单”却能够在一定程度上展现东北经济稳中有进的态势。需要注意的是,东北地区消费增长方面的增速仍然靠后,部分资源型省份增速也不高。部分原因是由于结构单一,转型效果滞后,所以,今年下半年仍需要抓住“振兴东北”以及政策倾斜契机,在加快供给侧改革、结构调整、产业转型以及人才培养方面着力。

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