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法国经济逐步恢复增长韧性
2017-08-30 06:22:00 中国青年网
近期公布的各项经济数据显示出法国经济复苏势头得到了延续,并逐步恢复了增长的韧性。但法国新政府仍然面临较为严峻的结构性难题,当务之急是要将年初的经济复苏态势延续至下半年,巩固经济复苏基础,这也是法国当前推进各项改革的重要基础。
法国统计局日前发布的统计数据显示,随着近期法国消费增长持续加速,出口贸易回升,法国经济在二季度延续了此前的增长态势,经济增速达到0.5%,这也是国内生产总值(GDP)连续3个月增长0.5%。
根据法国统计局与法兰西银行公布的数据,法国经济已达到近年来的最佳状态,经济增长初具韧性。在消费方面,消费者信心指数自2016年下半年以来持续增长,并达到国际金融危机以来的最高水平,家庭消费支出在近期增长了0.3%。在市场方面,企业及商业环境也达到了6年来的最佳水平,市场活力逐步改善。在投资方面,二季度出现明显放缓,增速在一季度达到1.4%后逐步修正到0.5%左右。今年一季度,法国投资增速曾因额外摊销税务制度取消一度创下历史新高,但有关投资的相关税费减免也进一步延续了增长与修正态势。总体而言,内需拉动继续成为法国二季度经济增长的主要动力,并为该季度的经济增长贡献了0.4%的增速。在外贸方面,企业与市场活力复苏有力提升了出口的增长,有效改善了前期的逆增长态势,增长了3.1%。今年二季度,外贸领域为总体经济增长贡献了0.8个百分点。
此前,国际货币基金组织在《世界经济展望报告》更新内容中,上调了对法国经济的预期,预测其今明两年的经济增长将分别达到1.5%和1.7%,比去年预测分别高出0.3个和0.5个百分点。同时,包括欧洲央行、经济合作与发展组织在内的多个组织也预测法国2017年的经济增速将保持在1.3%至1.4%之间。今年7月初,法国总理菲利普曾根据法国统计局及法兰西银行的最新统计数据将法国2017年的经济增速目标由1.5%提升至1.6%,并推出了缩减财政支出、减少过高赋税及修改劳动法案等一系列措施,以防止初步复苏的法国经济再次陷入低增长陷阱,增强法国经济应对危机的抵抗力,为即将开启的结构性改革铺平道路。为此,法国政府推出了投资500亿欧元振兴经济的5年计划,其中100亿欧元用于发展创新,其余用于新技能培训和经济绿色环保的转型。同时,法国国民议会于今年7月份投票通过了旨在减少公共赤字和税务方面的一系列具体措施,如摒弃无效的开支项目并细分经费、2022年以前将减少相当于国民生产总值1%的税负压力、改革居住税与巨富税等。
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