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利率市场六涨二跌

2017-08-29 10:00:28   中国经济网

8月28日,Shibor市场六涨二跌,波动幅度较小,都在1个基本点之内。短期利率下跌,中长期利率上涨,资金供求呈现近松远紧的态势。代表性利率的7天Shibor微跌0.34个基点至2.9064%,环比小幅上行。美元指数继续走弱,人民币汇率继续下降,升值势头强劲,大宗商品价格延续强势,市场对中国经济发展前景保持良好预期。隔夜利率下跌0.40个基点至2.8510%,环比上周同期小幅上涨。14天利率微涨0.09个基点至3.7399%。1个月利率上涨0.43个基点至3.8915%,继续在4%以下振荡。国内商品延续强势,资源板块表现抢眼,市场看多氛围浓厚,“十九大”召开前夕,基本面较为平静。中长期利率延续小幅振荡,3个月、6个月、9个月和1年期利率分别报4.3740%、4.3924%、4.3975%、4.4078%。

周一上证综指站上3300,创出3375.03的高位,为2016年1月中旬以来新高。连续的上涨,使得市场看多氛围浓厚,乐观情绪升温。我们认为,上证综指的涨幅过快,明显透支行情,且量能没有放大,上涨基础不牢,近期回调的可能性较大。近期股市大涨,主要是权重股拉升。从已经发布的半年报分析,经营明显改善的企业主要是国企。得益于供给侧改革,部分行业去产能,使得煤炭、钢材、铜铝等价格大幅上涨,存活的企业受益匪浅,但行业发展并没有明显改善。“十九大”前夕,基本面较为平静,并没有太多的利好。因此,投资者可以适当利用期指套保。

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