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结构性行情依然存在

2017-08-25 08:38:22   新华网

股谚有云,“会买的是徒弟,会卖的是师父”。就在市场冲击3300点关口时,产业资本却正逢高离场。券商人士指出,产业资本在股市的增减持,对投资者持股信心有较大的影响,当前市场仍是存量博弈,3300点围而不攻或与产业资本出逃息息相关。但周期、金融等投资主线并未动摇,结构性行情依然存在。

产业资本逢高离场

Wind数据显示,7月以来,共有318家上市公司获得重要股东增持,合计增持了17.84亿股,增持总额为206.4亿元;256家遭遇重要股东减持,合计减持20.24亿股,减持总额219.64亿元;净减持金额为13.24亿元。

平安证券分析师魏伟、马涛指出,近期资本市场的政策环境发生了许多重要的转变,从2016年三季度的IPO提速、2017年2月的再融资收紧,2017年5月的减持新规,再到一行三会的全面金融监管趋严。整体影响下,A股市场的重要股东增减持呈现了一些新的变化特征。重要股东增减持在连续两个月的净增持后在7月转向了净减持。5月份,大股东资本开始相对变得活跃起来,净增持也从负转正,当月的净增持为12.31亿元;在随后的6月净增持达到38.84亿元的高点。在经历了两个月的净增持后,7月的产业资本转向了净减持,主要是主板的增持规模收窄。

从个股来看,增持市值前三的股票依次是南京新百、辽宁成大和中泰化学,7月以来增持金额分别为20.65亿元、13.85亿元和13.77亿元。上述3只股票7月份以来涨幅分别为4.15%、4.55%和19.53%。

减持居前的则是分众传媒、陕西煤业和恺英网络,减持金额分别为27.88亿元、13.58亿元和11.05亿元。上述3只股票7月以来涨幅分别为-8.44%、11.13%和0.57%。

新时代证券研发中心研究总监刘光桓表示,产业资本增减持股票对二级市场有较大的影响,增持肯定是利好,说明产业资本对股市和相关公司后市看好,对股价上涨有促进作用,增强市场投资者的信心。而减持则正好相反,减持肯定是利空,一方面说明股市到了一定的风险高位,相关公司股价涨幅过大,产业资本获利了结的意愿非常强烈;另一方面,由于产业资本持有的量较大,对流通股本较小的股票就会形成较大的抛压,其股价后期走势也不容乐观,若公司基本面再不佳,其股价就会一地鸡毛。因此,产业资本在股市的增减持,能够反映出股市或相关公司股价是在高位或低位,具有一定的风向标作用,投资者不可不察。

机构增减持面面观

不仅产业资本逢高出逃,Wind数据显示,中报期间机构亦携资金出逃。截至6月30日,所有申万一级行业中机构持股市值均出现了不同程度的下降。其中,降幅最多的是银行、采掘、非银金融,本期持股市值较上期持股市值减少额度分别高达3.97万亿元、1.78万亿元和1.17万亿元。

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