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避险情绪升温推涨黄金 1300整数关口待破

2017-08-23 09:21:00   中国经济网

近2个月以来,在一系列风险消息影响下,全球市场避险情绪升温,推涨国际金价。

8月22日截稿时,现货黄金微跌0.38%,报1285.89美元每盎司;黄金12月期货下跌0.37%,报1291.90美元每盎司。此前,黄金上周五飙升至1300美元每盎司以上,这是自去年11月以来的高位。

避险需求推升短期金价

“近2个月时间里,特朗普政治乱局、地缘政治问题、巴塞罗那恐怖袭击等都对黄金形成短期的利好。黄金从去年10月后开始反弹,主要还是得力于美联储加息的拖延,并且近期风险事件频发,利好黄金反弹。” FXTM富拓公司发展和市场研究中国区主管钟越对21世纪经济报道记者表示。

近期,因地缘政治担忧推动,“聪明钱”持续做多黄金,美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)8月18日公布的周度报告显示,截至8月15日当周,对冲基金和基金经理增持COMEX黄金净多头头寸,为连续第五周增持,黄金净多仓攀升至至少两个月高位。

据新华社消息,韩国与美国8月21日正式启动联合军演。“韩美联合军演的消息可能会引起朝鲜方面的回应,我认为市场价格正在反映局面潜在的演变方向,这是为何金价在8月21日交易日出现了反弹。” 工行标准银行东京分行经理Yuichi Ikemizu对CNBC表示。

本周央行年会或将导致金价波动

除了避险情绪外,金价走势也受制于加息节奏,因为加息将使得持有黄金这种无息资产的机会成本上升。“黄金价格一直受到投资资金的影响并且对通胀和风险事件非常敏感。世界黄金协会(WGC)近期报告显示,黄金ETFs资金从2016年10月开始不断增持黄金并且屡创新高,成为近期推动金价反弹的主要动力。虽然这个时间里美联储出现了第三、第四次加息,但是美联储此次加息周期对金价的利空似乎已经消化,这也验证了黄金价格对全球的经济有提前反应的特点。” 钟越说。

当地时间本周四(8月24日)起,美联储主办的杰克逊霍尔年度全球央行行长会议将如期举行,央行的政策动向是市场关注的重点。目前,市场普遍认为,美联储已准备开始清理其4.5万亿美元的资产负债表,而欧洲央行也在权衡何时该放缓大规模购买资产。

有分析指出,市场主流观点认为这次会议释放新消息的可能性比较小,但是交易员仍然想通过加仓黄金来对冲意外的结果。如果美联储或者欧洲央行在会议上做出意料之外的表态,金价或出现大幅波动。

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