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刘柯:乱炒资源股代价沉重

2017-08-14 09:19:38   中国经济网

周五大盘重挫,以钢铁为首的资源股成为下跌的重要推手,而在此前,钢铁曾经是资源股炒作的龙头,不少钢铁股短期涨幅巨大。对此,中钢协定性钢价上涨完全是市场资金炒作,这也是钢铁股集体大跌的直接诱因。

实际上,在很多冷静的市场人士眼里,资源股的此波炒作本身就有些无厘头。因为从市场实际需求看,并没有出现明显的改善迹象,不少大宗商品价格甚至只是在底部略有反弹而已,根本不是一个大的经济周期回暖而造成的实际需求拉动的价格上涨。因此,看到股市里很多资源股莫名其妙地大涨,并辅以“新价格上涨周期”来助推,这完全不符合实情。

从市场的角度看,虽然周五大盘因为多重因素重挫,但一个好的现象是,市场的活跃度还是提升了起来。今年以来,整个市场波澜不惊,一些中小盘股更是跌跌不休,唯独“漂亮50”不断摧城拔寨,让人羡慕不已。在这种市道下,整个市场其实是缺乏赚钱效应的,因为这个市场里不仅仅只有坚守价值投资抱团取暖的资金,还有很多投机资金,全世界的资本市场都是如此,不可能绝对的“干净”。但在只有“漂亮50”上涨的情况下,市场很多“墙头草”资金是无可奈何的,没有突出的热点题材,甚至没有可持续一个星期以上的炒作题材,大家都在“打酱油”。资源股最近的持续上涨,至少激活了不少市场的活跃资金。

因此,我们可以看到,这个市场还是不缺活跃资金的,只要有赚钱效应,它们就会从各个角落里冒出来。这里要清醒一点,资源股的炒作理由站不住脚,那么,这些活跃资金该去挖掘什么其它题材呢?

最大的题材,莫过于业绩;最大的题材,莫过于有持续增长的业绩;最大的题材,莫过于在行业前景好的领域里挖掘有持续增长业绩的企业。

为什么国家队会不断现身一些中小创公司?原因只有一个,这些创蓝筹或者中小创里前沿新兴领域的公司,业绩依旧是在增长的,再加上行业大风口,投资投机两不误。市场活跃资金与其去炒作无厘头的资源涨价,不如潜心挖掘中小创里业绩可持续增长的大风口的好公司。

实际上,在“漂亮50”已经持续上涨一年,部分公司的估值洼地已经被填平的情况下,已经跌了一年多估值落入30倍区间的中小创里新兴产业成长股已经开始展现吸引力,“新兴+成长+业绩+流动性”成为机构资金新集中营。从全球范围资本市场看,中小盘科技股的绝对涨幅都是超过大盘蓝筹的,即便是最成熟最发达的美国,也是如此。今年开年以来美国科技板块整体上涨23%,在标普500指数所有板块中位居第一,更有意思的是,在美国上市的中国科技股又是上涨中的翘楚,陌陌、京东和阿里巴巴三者的涨幅都接近或者超过80%,而同期Facebook也只不过上涨了49%。

这几个关键词大家一定要牢记,前沿科技、中国概念、业绩增长,这样的企业在全球都会受到追捧,A股不会?我们仔细梳理一下已经出了半年报和半年预告的中小创公司,把那些业绩按季度持续增长、行业属性属于新兴前沿产业、整体估值在30倍左右的公司仔细研究一下,在这些公司里投资与投机两相宜,比乱炒资源股要好得多。

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