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揭秘人民币大涨真相:从跟涨到自我强化

2017-08-11 11:40:07   新华网

美元兑人民币即期汇率

“从升破6.7,到升至6.65,近日人民币对美元升值不光是快,而且很可能意味着升值模式出现了切换!”面对本周人民币对美元再现快速升值,有外汇市场人士认为,人民币兑美元汇率反弹正从“跟随式”走向“自主式”,背后反映的是今年以来人民币数次升值对市场预期的深刻影响。

考虑到人民币对美元存在“补涨”空间,且前期积压的未结汇资金有望为“补涨”提供动力,一些市场机构认为,未来一段时间人民币对美元有望维持阶段性强势,跨境资本流动及外汇占款变化的拐点可能已渐行渐近。

  近几日升出了“新意”

年初至今,人民币对美元已走出几波较明显的升值行情。尽管都是升值,但近几日似乎升出了“新意”。

经历短暂盘整,本周人民币兑美元汇率重拾升势。8月8日,境内银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元即期汇率盘中升破6.70元关口,为去年10月11日以来首次;9日,人民币乘胜追击,连续突破6.70、6.69和6.68三道关口,全天对美元升值259个基点;10日,人民币汇率早盘继续冲高,再破6.67和6.66两道关口,最高涨至6.6520,创去年8月底以来新高,随后汇价回调,16:30收盘价报6.6610。

这一波升值依然很快,从7日收盘价6.7182算起,到10日最高价6.6520,短短三日,人民币兑美元即期汇率升值近700基点,最大升幅达1%。这一波升值后,人民币汇价回到去年9月底水平,将去年四季度的失地尽数收回。但更值得注意的是,这一波升值是在缺少美元“配合”的情况下进行的。

自月初创出92.54的最近15个月新低后,国际市场上美元指数暂时止住阴跌的走势,近几日出现低位震荡反弹。

年初以来,美元的孱弱恐怕是大多数人都未曾料到的。自1月3日盘中创出103.82的十四年新高后,美元指数的走势便来了个180度的大转弯。前7个月里,除了2月份之外,其他6个月美元指数都在跌。8月2日,美元指数最低跌至92.54,为去年5月4日以来最低水平;截至当日日终,今年美元指数累计下跌9.28%。

如果说,今年人民币是否极泰来的话,那在很大程度要归因于美元盛极而衰,今年前7个月人民币对美元升值主要是“跟随式”的,关键影响因素即美元。

然而,近几日在美元走势回稳的情况下,人民币对美元再掀起一波快速升值,可能表明人民币已经不是之前那个“人民币”了。

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