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博鳌大讲堂杨现领:数据透视租赁市场新机遇

2017-08-09 11:06:15   光明网

8月8日,2017博鳌房地产论坛在海南举办期间,链家研究院院长、经济学博士杨现领于论坛“博鳌大讲堂”环节与现场嘉宾分享了十组数据,从租赁市场的客群、需求模式、租金回报、运营管理、市场的挑战与机遇等多维度探讨租赁市场整体生态及未来发展趋势。

长三角和珠三角的重点城市 未来将焕发租赁市场活力

过去半个月,广州等城市一项“购租同权”的新政,迅速将租赁市场推向风口,租赁市场火爆背后,租赁红利并非雨露均沾。“国内具有代表性的开发企业几乎都已经全部涌入租赁市场”杨现领认为,但不是所有城市都有租赁机会,事实上它只属于重点城市。

有4个重要指标决定租赁市场开拓机会。第一,有持续人口净流入,且净流入人口以年轻人为主。第二,服务业占比超过50%,且持续上升。第三是房价收入比偏高,交易市场价格门槛高。第四,租金基数不高,且上涨空间广阔。在杨现领看来,满足这四大特点的城市,未来租赁市场将大有活力,这些城市多布局于珠三角和长三角的重点城市。

数据显示,目前这些重点城市租金收入比均处于30%这个合理范围内,未来还有较强的潜力。

租赁市场相对独立 不会出现爆发式增长

政策的鼓励是否会为租赁市场带来一个快速爆发期?针对这一目前业内普遍关心的问题,杨现领的观点是否定的。他认为,租赁市场是一个相对独立的市场,它的内在运行规律是既定的。租赁需求的释放是稳定有节奏的,原因在于年轻人的额支付能力处于相对稳定的水平。

杨现领以北京市场为例,做了如下诠释:在北京70%的租房人群是年轻人,租房模式以单间为主,人均租住面积不到20平,且租金支出控制在收入水平的30%以内,租金支付能力是租赁市场发展不可跨越的因素。因此,对于租赁市场未来发展空间,杨现领表现得比较乐观:“不应拿租赁市场与交易市场相提并论,稳态的增长还是有空间。”

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