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卖出认购期权策略占优

2017-08-08 10:46:51   中国经济网

周一上证综指先抑后扬,午后持续上行,尾盘报收于3279.46点,收涨0.53%,结束此前的三连阴走势。两市成交量4595.67亿元,减少1073.7亿元,缩量上行。中证500指数领涨,涨幅1.26%,其余指数普涨,上证50涨幅最小,仅为0.24%。盘面看,钢铁、有色金属、食品饮料、煤炭等行业板块领涨,下跌的行业板块仅有非银金融和国防军工这两大前期涨幅较高的板块。期指方面,IC合约领涨,涨幅达到1.01%。标的资产方面,50ETF振荡走高,尾盘报收于2.679,涨幅0.30%,成交量降至193.81万手,减少31.2万手,而且市场资金呈大幅流出态势。

期权市场成交量小幅下降,全日累计成交616977张期权合约,较上一交易日增加41278张合约。其中,认购期权成交332837张,较上一交易日增加5.37%。认沽期权成交284140张,较上一交易日增加9.35%。日成交量PCR小幅增至0.854,上一交易日为0.822,市场避险情绪升温。持仓方面,上证50ETF期权总持仓量小幅增至1703235张,增加120340张,认沽期权持仓量已经连续第三天低于认购期权持仓量,说明随着标的资产价格回调,认购期权的卖方力量逐步增强。这也是低波动率、高费率条件下的最优选择。8月认购期权成交量最大的合约均集中在7月2.70合约上,认沽期权成交量最大的合约则集中在2.65合约上,预计短期内多空双方在2.65—2.70区间内争夺为主。

标的资产30日历史波动率13.01%,重心抬升。认购与认沽期权隐含波动率均小幅增加,两者差异不大。平值期权方面,50ETF购8月2.70期权的隐含波动率为14.86%,较上一交易日增加0.56个百分点;50ETF沽8月2.70期权的隐含波动率为14.17%,增加0.48个百分点。

图为8月平值期权隐含波动率变动

因标的资产50ETF价格小幅上涨,仅实值部分的认购期权价格小幅上涨,认沽期权价格则全线下跌。8月平值认购合约“50ETF购8月2.70”报收于0.0266,上涨10.37%;8月平值认沽合约“50ETF沽8月2.70”报收于0.0421,下跌10.43%。随着标的资产价格回调,认购期权价格加速下挫,高位风险部分释放。

综合来看,标的资产50ETF进入高位水平的缩量调整阶段,资金流向仍以流出为主。盘面看,资源股与金融股交互上涨,行情尚未结束。期权策略方面,投资者短期内可以卖出备兑策略为主,以防关键压力位的大幅回调风险。

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