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白糖期权 可采用卖出宽跨策略

2017-08-01 10:22:26   中国经济网

白糖期货主力已经移仓至1月合约,期权跟随期货的移仓时点,期权合约同样移仓至1月合约,但受限于200手的个人持仓量,相较上市初期的9月合约,1月合约成交相对稳定。

国内糖价继续磨底

受巴西计划上调燃料税支撑,国际原糖价格继续反弹,7月27日主力合约最高触及14.64美分/磅,最低跌到14.23美分/磅,最终收涨1.69%,报于14.47美分/磅。

上周稍早,巴西联邦法官裁定暂停大幅上调燃料税计划。上调燃料税将提振甘蔗生产乙醇的比例。不过,之后有消息称,燃料税水平已经恢复。

国内糖价则继续磨底。7月28日,白糖盘面合同价格全线下调。其中,广西南宁、柳州中间商报价分别为6380—6450元/吨和6340—6560元/吨,成交一般。此外,广州市场上广西糖报价为6760元/吨,湛江市场上广东糖报价为6400元/吨,成交偏差。在现货降价的压力下,1月合约价格创下本榨季的新低。对于中短期投资者而言,可以逢低买入1月合约。对于可以交易外盘的投资者而言,可以建立内外正套。

期权成交和持仓基本稳定

7月31日,白糖期货主力1月合约振荡下行,日盘收于6030元/吨,成交量为43万手,持仓量为67万手,成交量和持仓量基本稳定。同时,白糖期权总成交量为0.56万手,总持仓量为3.25万手,成交活跃度偏低。1月合约成交量占比74%,持仓量占比67%。白糖期权整体成交量PC_Ratio小幅攀升至0.76,持仓量PC_Ratio回落至0.77。其中,1月合约看涨期权成交量为4952手,看跌期权成交量为3464手,1月合约成交量PC_Ratio为0.70。从量能角度来看,市场悲观情绪正在缓解。

动态卖出期权宽跨组合

近期,白糖期权隐含波动率有些许回落。目前,白糖平值期权隐含波动率为13.76%,相比11.08%的历史波动率,波动率差有所收窄。

图为历史波动率与平值期权隐含波动率

此时,持有买入宽跨组合,既要承担期权时间价值流逝带来的损耗,又要承担隐含波动率向下回调的风险。考虑到近期走势较为平稳,建议短期内卖出虚值的宽跨期权(卖出SR801C6300和SR801P5900),并根据糖价未来走势动态调整持仓组合。当波动率回升时,及时平仓。

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