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油脂 买远抛近套利较稳妥

2017-08-01 10:22:26   中国经济网

经历半个月的横盘后,美豆油突然发力,一度触及年初以来的高点35.58美分/磅,最终涨幅为2.19%。美豆尚处于天气市,美豆油突然开启上涨模式,原因无他,唯生物柴油尔。

北京时间上周五晚,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦巡回上诉法院裁决美国环保署在制定可再生能源标准时误解释“国内供应不充足”豁免条款,要求其将此前议案中因此而削减的乙醇及其他可再生能源的掺混量修正过来。此次裁决意味着包括乙醇、生物柴油在内的可再生能源使用量获得提升。

美国的可再生能源标准是什么?它如何影响美豆油价格?此次突发事件对国内油脂市场有何影响?我们逐条分析。

美国环保署下调可再生燃料使用标准遭质疑

美国的可再生能源标准始于2005年,实际上是一项能源消费计划,其初衷在于提高美国的可再生能源消费量,减少大气污染和海外能源依赖,进一步谋求美国能源供给的独立性。

可再生能源标准要求在燃料中添加可再生燃料,并规定了包括纤维素生物燃料、生物柴油、先进生物燃料在内的可再生燃料的最低用量标准。在2007年的《美国能源独立与安全法案》中,美国国会进一步明确了2022年之前每年的可再生能源使用量,要求到2022年,可再生能源的消费总量要从2008年的80亿加仑提高到360亿加仑。该法案所界定的可再生能源主要是生物乙醇与生物柴油,而负责这一计划落实和实施的机构正是美国环保署。

2010年,美国对可再生能源标准进行了调整,其中,生物柴油最低使用量为:2011年达到8亿加仑,2012年增加到10亿加仑,此后直至2022年,不得低于10亿加仑。尽管国会通过的能源法案明确了2022年之前每年的可再生能源使用量,但考虑到可再生能源标准的执行对经济和环境造成的影响,国会又授权美国环保署,可以根据实际情况进行修正,在每年上半年公布下一年的使用标准议案,并在11月底之前形成最终方案。

7月5日,美国环保署公布了2018年的可再生能源标准,出于对供应不足的担忧,其维持生物柴油21亿加仑的掺混量不变,略微下调了可再生燃料总量(主要是乙醇)使用标准。8月1日,国会就此议案召开公众听证会。若公众无反对意见,则11月的最终方案会维持原标准不变;若公众提出反对意见,则美国环保署要妥善处理,并在最终方案中有所体现。

然而,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦巡回上诉法院并不认可美国环保署此次使用豁免权下调可再生能源标准的行为。

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