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市场风格再切换 创业板绝地反击 机构建议优选真成长股

2017-07-28 13:59:25   新华网

昨日市场风格再度发生切换,今年以来屡遭重挫的创业板指数在传媒股的带领下展开反击,刷新年内最大单日涨幅,而周期股、消费类白马股等今年以来的领涨品种则大幅回调。

截至昨日收盘,上证综指报3249.78点,上涨0.06%,成交2426亿元;深证成指报10395.19点,上涨0.95%,成交3099亿元;创业板指数报1742.19点,上涨3.62%,成交882亿元,在创下年内最大单日涨幅的同时,伴随成交量急剧放大。

游戏股领衔上涨

传媒板块成为昨日创业板领涨品种,而传媒板块中的游戏股更是发挥着举足轻重的作用。截至昨日收盘,共有8只传媒板块个股收涨停,其中就包含了5只涉及游戏业务的股票,分别是中青宝、昆仑万维、盛天网络、北纬通信和富春股份。

从基本面业绩上看,上述5家涨停的游戏板块公司半年报业绩全部预告实现增长,这也符合当前“业绩为王”的市场主流审美。其中,昆仑万维在7月24日晚间发布了2017年半年报,上半年实现营业收入17.37亿元,同比增长41.7%;实现归属母公司净利润3.84亿元,同比增长57.5%,业绩增长来自于报告期内移动游戏业务收入和毛利率大幅增加。

富春股份预计上半年实现归属母公司净利润7600万元至8800万元,同比增长86.63%至116.10%,业绩变动原因系子公司上海骏梦上半年业绩大幅增长。民生证券研报指出,富春股份子公司上海骏梦游戏IP储备丰富,目前正在组建一支规模更大的研发队伍,为2018年及以后的业绩做充分的准备。

除了半年报业绩为游戏板块提供了有力的基本面支撑外,一年一度的游戏业展会ChinaJoy的开幕也对整个行业构成了消息面刺激。

7月27日,第十五届ChinaJoy在上海拉开帷幕。分析人士认为,本次展会是验证游戏公司新产品质量与关注度的重要舞台,游戏公司部分主力新游戏将于会展上亮相并开启试玩,相应参展公司及游戏、动漫等相关行业或受提振,建议关注游戏品质、口碑较好的研发型公司。

机构建议优选真成长股

在当前存量博弈的格局下,创业板此次大涨是否会宣告中小市值股票将成为接下来一段时间的主流?针对这一问题,机构的观点仍然趋于谨慎,认为优选真成长股还是未来投资创业板时的主要逻辑。

在经历了前期暴跌之后,部分真成长股进入私募等机构资金的建仓区间。深圳一位管理规模约为30亿元的私募基金经理表示:“目前业绩好、估值合理的成长股已经可以开始建仓了,个股重于板块,投资人的衡量标准是估值和业绩,而非蓝筹还是成长。”

但是行情的可持续性依然值得担忧。以投资新兴成长股为主的鼎锋资产合伙人王小刚坦言:“成长股里的真成长是值得买了,但总体上来看,中小股票或成长型股票能否持续还不敢断言,感觉还是贵。”聚源统计数据显示,创业板的整体市盈率依然有49倍,电子板块为47倍,通信板块为90倍。

从博弈的角度看,创业板底部需要经过充分换手才能迎来行情的持续。“创业板底部筹码交换充分才可能继续上行,创业板的套牢盘太多,这种反弹行情可能会持续几天,后市还是需要谨慎。”深圳某管理规模为5亿元的小型私募负责人说。(记者 费天元 屈红燕)

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