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菜油 近弱远强格局不变

2017-07-28 13:59:12   中国经济网

6月以来,油脂期货触底反弹,菜油期货最为强势,以菜油主力合约1801为例,从6月1日的最低点6182元/吨上涨至7月27日的6800元/吨左右,涨幅接近10%。菜油现货价格跟盘上涨,以江苏地区为例,由6050元/吨上涨至6500元/吨,但涨幅小于期货,主要原因在于供应过剩。从基本面来看,近期菜油供应较远期宽松,因此后期远月与近月合约价差或继续扩大。

加拿大油菜籽旧作和新作期末库存未明显降低

加拿大油菜籽和菜油总供应占全球九成以上市场,该国供需情况对菜籽油价格有重要影响。加拿大油籽加工商协会(COPA)上周五公布的周度压榨报告显示,截至7月12日当周,2016/2017年度迄今,加拿大油菜籽压榨总量为870.28万吨,上年度同期为783.28万吨,油菜籽需求非常强劲。2016/2017年度前10个月出口总量为944.12万吨,总共消费了1814.4万吨。根据美国农业部7月供需报告,2016/2017年度加拿大油菜籽总产量为1850万吨,上年度的期末库存为201.6万吨,照此测算,当前加拿大油菜籽库存仅为237.2万吨,如果后面2个月按照往年同期平均出口总量和加拿大国内压榨量测算,加拿大油菜籽旧作供应会非常紧张。

而从2017/2018年度供需情况看,美国农业部显示的加拿大产量数据为2100万吨,加拿大农业暨农业食品部发布的该国产量数据为1900万吨,均是创纪录的产量,但由于加拿大国内需求和对外出口强劲,2017/2018年度加拿大油菜籽期末库存并未出现明显提高,这将长期支撑国际市场菜籽价格走势。

三季度国内菜籽和菜油供应非常充足

国内沿海进口菜籽总库存为62.25万吨,较去年同期的38.63万吨增加61.14%。其中,两广及福建地区菜籽库存为42.5万吨,较去年同期的27.4万吨增加84.67%。从目前船期跟踪统计来看,7月买船为42万吨,8、9月各为30万吨。加拿大油菜籽全部为春油菜,一般为5月上旬播种,8月底收获。

两广及福建地区菜油库存为10.25万吨,华东地区库存为35.55万吨,合计45.8万吨,远高于近5年的平均水平。加上未消化的拍卖菜油,总体测算下来,三季度国内菜籽和菜油供应非常充足。四季度一般是国内油菜籽进口旺季,从进口菜籽盘面压榨利润来看,一直未给出进口利润,买船偏少,利多远月合约。

国内豆油库存压力大,挤占菜油消费

国内菜油消费的主要替代油品为豆油。从目前国内大豆到港量预报来看,7月大豆到港量最新预期在923.06万吨;8月到港量最新预期维持在830万吨;9月最新预期增至680万吨,较上周的预期增50万吨;10月最新预期700万吨,高于上周的650万吨。按照预估的进口量测算,2016/2017年度中国大豆进口量可能在9319万吨,较2015/2016年度的8323万吨增加11.99%,而按照18.5%的出油率测算,折油增加了184万吨,远远高于国内豆油消费增量。因此,今年国内豆油库存持续攀升,油厂开机率维持在高位。

有关数据显示,截至7月21日,国内豆油商业库存总量137.6万吨,较去年同期的108.8万吨增28.8万吨或26.47%。在油厂压榨开机率超高的背景下,预计豆油库存还将继续增长,很快会突破140万吨。当前国内一级豆油与一级菜油价差在400元/吨,处于低值,豆油必将挤占菜油市场份额,短期菜油消费难言乐观。

总之,菜油期价继续上涨的难度明显加大,近月合约的回调压力大于远月合约,建议关注空近多远的套利机会。

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