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央行重申稳健中性货币政策 下半年紧平衡大势不改
2017-07-07 18:31:20 经济参考报
央行本周三度发声重申“稳健中性货币政策”
下半年货币“紧平衡”大势不改
2017年已进入下半段,市场人士对于下半年货币政策的走势高度关注。本周,央行先后发布了货币政策委员会第二季度例会新闻稿、《中国金融稳定报告(2017)》和《中国人民银行年报(2016)》,均明确“将实施好稳健中性的货币政策。”与此同时,央行反复强调“把防控金融风险放在更加重要的位置”。
业内人士表示,从央行的表态和目前市场的情况分析,今年整体的货币政策将保持“不松不紧”不会转向,去杠杆和防风险仍将是政策重要的考量因素。从流动性角度来看,在经历了6月的平稳过渡后,7月资金面仍面临一定压力。展望全年,流动性的总基调将为“紧平衡”,“过紧日子”也将是贯穿金融机构一年的主题。
日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会2017年第二季度例会强调,实施好稳健中性的货币政策,综合运用多种货币政策工具,维护流动性基本稳定,引导货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长。央行于7月4日发布的《中国金融稳定报告(2017)》也重申上述观点,要实施好稳健中性的货币政策,保持流动性合理适度、基本稳定,为实体经济发展营造良好的货币金融环境。而在7月5日发布的《中国人民银行年报(2016)》中,央行行长周小川致辞称:“2017年是实施‘十三五’规划的重要一年和推进供给侧结构性改革的深化之年,央行将保持货币政策审慎和稳健,为稳增长和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。”
与此同时,《中国金融稳定报告(2017)》称,要把防控金融风险放到更加重要的位置,加强系统性风险监测与评估,下决心处置一批风险点,完善存款保险制度功能,探索金融机构风险市场化处置机制,确保不发生系统性金融风险。7月6日发布的《2016年中国金融市场发展报告》由中国人民银行上海总部组织相关部门的专家学者共同撰写,该报告也指出,2017年我国金融市场工作也将不断加强监管,把防控金融风险作为重中之重,切实防范化解金融风险,守住不发生系统性金融风险底线。
基于央行最近的表态,业内人士预期,下半年货币政策不会转向。中信证券固收研究首席研究员明明在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,货币政策仍将保持“不松不紧”,一方面因为去杠杆已经取得阶段性成果,且银监会下一步监管力度松紧程度尚未可知,没有进一步收紧的必要。另一方面,最近公布的实体经济数据也显示国内宏观经济存在一定的韧性,不存在刺激经济而放松货币政策的需要。
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