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锂电池产业前景向好:提高“能量密度”是关键

2017-06-23 13:25:03   

近年来,随着我国新能源汽车快速发展,动力电池需求猛增,直接带动了以锂电池为代表的相关产业高速增长。然而,随着产业政策的变革和市场形态的变化,产能过剩、续航时间短等问题成为制约产业发展的瓶颈。业内专家认为—

6月21日,由青海省人民政府、工业与信息化部、科学技术部联合中国电动汽车百人会共同主办的“锂产业国际高峰论坛”在青海省西宁市举办,政府相关部门负责人、专家学者以及企业代表就如何打造良好的锂电产业发展生态展开了讨论。

产业发展全面向好

“十二五”以来,中国新能源汽车市场快速增长。从2011年到2016年,新能源汽车销量从不足5000辆发展到51万辆,保有量从1万辆提升到100万辆,2016年新能源汽车销量已经超过汽车总销量的1.8%。在新能源汽车产业快速发展的带动下,动力电池需求量持续增加。中国电动汽车百人会相关课题报告显示,今年一季度国内电动汽车锂离子电池需求总量为1.27GWh,动力电池累计出货量4018.273MWh。随着新能源汽车产销量的持续增长,锂电池的市场需求将会持续扩张。

在技术研发逐步深入和市场竞争日益激烈等因素的影响下,动力电池类型也逐步确立。受动力电池不同生产工艺要求的影响,预计2017年软包电芯将继续坐稳产量和增速第一的位置。同时,随着动力电池厂特别是国轩、比亚迪等领军企业大规模扩充方形动力电芯产线,2018年,方形电芯将取代软包电芯成为市场应用最多的电池类型。从搭载的动力电池情况来看,受政策影响,新能源客车现有电池技术路线基本已定,磷酸铁锂电池在纯电动客车领域占据绝对优势,三元电池在纯电动乘用车领域占主导地位。

与此同时,随着电池技术研发的深入,锂离子动力电池系统的比能量在逐年提升,成本在逐年下降。中国电动汽车百人会执行副理事长欧阳明高说:“动力电池在过去5年间比能量提高了近一倍,成本也下降了,预计到2020年成本将降到1元/瓦时。”

欧阳明高还表示,近些年动力电池在安全性方面也取得了重大进展。“电池最容易发生事故的不是一个单体热失控,而是一个单体热失控之后的整个系统扩展,这就会造成大事故。在这方面,我们国内做的工作在全球是领先的,现在在电池设计阶段就可以预测其热失控特性。”欧阳明高说。

决胜市场尚存难点

2016年,中央财政对新能源汽车的补贴政策开始收紧,产业政策由普惠制向促进技术创新转变。受此影响,新能源汽车产销情况一度出现波动,锂电池前期迅猛增长的市场效应也开始显现,在多重因素影响下,锂电池出现产能过剩局面,一些中小企业已经处于停产或者半停产状态。与此同时,锂电池市场集中度进一步提高,2015年,前5强企业市场占比56.3%,2016年这一比例提升到了64.5%。中国汽车技术研究中心副主任吴志新认为,当前的产能过剩是结构性过剩、阶段性过剩,“真正好的电池产品仍然供不应求,对快速发展的新能源汽车产业来说,未来依然存在产能需求旺盛的可能”。

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