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纳入了MSCI,A股却没大涨:它憋着呢

2017-06-21 17:53:11   

又双叒叕闯关MSCI,A股这次成功将带来哪些影响?

一鼓作气,再而衰,三而竭。这句话放在中国A股闯关MSCI上是行不通的。

今天凌晨,MSCI(明晟公司)公布2017年度市场分类评审结果,决定把中国A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数。

中新社发 尹正义 作

MSCI将从2018年6月开始将中国A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数和MSCI ACWI全球指数,并计划初始纳入222只大盘A股。基于 5%的纳入因子,这些A股约占MSCI新兴市场指数0.73%的权重。

A股又双叒叕冲击MSCI,终于在第四次成功。可是为什么,A股今天开盘后的大涨只持续了5分钟?这是A股在“憋大招”吗?中新社国是直通车让你了解,这件事将带来哪些影响?

提振市场信心

从历史数据分析,大部分新兴市场(韩国、印度、卡塔尔等)在纳入MSCI新兴市场指数后,其股市均有上涨。中国股市经历异常波动后,A股市场情绪低迷,信心缺失,而A股纳入MSCI在短期内将平衡以情绪为主导的A股市场,提振海内外投资者对中国市场的信心,为A股市场注入正能量。

民生证券副总裁、研究院院长管清友:从统计角度来看,在纳入MSCI新兴市场指数后(基于国际经验),股市在一年内上涨的国家多于下跌的国家。1988年MSCI新兴市场指数初始发布后,印尼(1989年纳入)、土耳其(1989年纳入)、韩国(1992年市值20%纳入)、印度(1994年纳入)、捷克(1996年纳入)、匈牙利(1996年纳入)、中国台湾(1996年市值50%纳入)、俄罗斯(1997年纳入)、埃及(2001年纳入)、卡塔尔(2013年纳入)、阿联酋(2013年纳入)分别纳入MSCI新兴市场指数。

通过统计以上国家纳入MSCI新兴市场指数后的股市表现,发现60%以上的国家1个月后股市出现上涨,61.5%的国家股市在一年后股市上涨幅度超过10%。

吸引资金进入

据国金证券此前测算,A股成功加入MSCI,短期流入增量资金约为117亿美元。

按初始纳入比例5%测算,新方案中A股在MSC新兴市场指数、中国指数、亚洲(除日本)指数、全球市场指数中的权重分别为0.5%、1.7%、0.6%、0.1%。规模方面,初始纳入5%时,MSCI新兴市场、亚洲(除日本)市场、全球市场、中国指数共将为A股带来增量规模约117亿美元,约合人民币796亿。

但根据此次MSCI的纳入方法,A股占比还要更高。

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