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国际地缘事件进入密集发作期 黄金持续上涨月余

2017-06-07 09:34:44   北京晨报

黄金持续上涨月余

国际地缘事件进入密集发作期

北京晨报讯(记者 姜樊)黄金已经上涨月余,昨日仍选择继续上行。截至北京晨报记者发稿时,黄金走势最高触及1289.12美元/盎司。

另有数据显示,黄金期货价格周一收盘上涨,连续第二个交易日走高,继续保持在六周高点附近。

对于黄金上行,不少业内人士认为是源于当下国际形势的错综复杂性。自美国总统特朗普不断曝出“丑闻”开始,黄金价格就开始升高。加之近日全球市场正在消化上周末发生的伦敦恐怖主义袭击事件,以及本周晚些时候举行的欧洲央行会议和英国大选结果,都是影响黄金走势的重要因素。

“英国大选、欧洲央行货币政策会议和美国前FBI局长公开作证都将在本周四上演,它们可能掀起半年来最大的市场风暴。”有分析师表示,这三大风险事件集中在“黑色星期四”降临,市场避险需求由此拥抱黄金,最新持仓数据显示,对冲基金和投机者连续两周加仓押注金价反弹,目前市场大举押注避险需求,也是黄金近期为何强势不改的主因。

不仅如此,近日中东局势也不容乐观。巴林、沙特、埃及、阿联酋、也门等中东国家突然宣布,与 卡塔尔断交,在黄金钱包首席分析师肖磊看来,也是导致黄金上涨的原因之一。

“当下是实物黄金购买的淡季,黄金上涨意味着投资性需求的上升。黄金是‘心理投向’的产品,避险情绪致使投资需求旺盛。”肖磊表示,美元已经下跌超过5%,地缘政治矛盾有所显现,而黄金在因前几年一直下跌而被低估,加上当下投资者对资产配置需求多样性的上升,黄金也逐渐变成必备品种。“从黄金的基本面上来看十分良好。”

对于是否应该投资黄金,市场上却出现了分歧。

有外资行分析师认为,今年黄金只有小行情,没有大行情。今年风险事件对于黄金的影响只有几天,不足以支撑黄金长期上涨。“现在全球通胀没有完全回升,黄金的保值性并不好;而战争很难预估,系统性风险所导致的货币的替代性也并不存在。”

肖磊则认为,如果本月美联储议息会议决定加息,黄金可能会有所回调,但很可能在加息之后黄金价格会继续上行。“如果想要投资黄金,回调时买入或将是不错的节点。”但肖磊提示,投资者不要对黄金价格预期过高,因为黄金只是避险品种,没有利息。

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