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央行“补水”4980亿元MLF 6月资金面预期紧平衡

2017-06-07 09:33:50   

6月溽暑,略感焦灼的货币市场如期迎来央行的重磅“麻辣粉”。6日,央行开展中期借贷便利(MLF)操作4980亿元,超过本月总到期量4313亿元。同时,当日央行暂停了逆回购操作。然而,市场资金面并不“领情”,上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)继续全线上涨,存款类机构质押式回购利率多数上行。

“就投放总量而言,央行此次操作只是提供了MLF到期后的流动性,没有看到主动‘放水’迹象,属于防守性的缓解流动性。”华融证券首席经济学家伍戈告诉上证报记者:“由于没有大剂量注入,所以市场并未出现利率价格明显下降,跨季资金面仍然偏紧。”

超额投放MLF“补水”资金面

据央行公告,6月6日,央行开展MLF操作4980亿元,并暂停当日逆回购操作。此次MLF投放期限均为1 年,操作利率3.20%,与上期持平。在一些业内人士看来,由于续作MLF全部为一年期,操作利率保持不变,同时加权期限进一步拉长,显示出央行通过MLF操作加强对于长端市场利率的引导。

数据显示,昨日有1510亿元MLF和600亿元逆回购到期,6月7日、16日将分别有733亿元和2070亿元MLF到期。此次MLF投放量(不计逆回购)相当于超额投放667亿元。

对此,联讯证券董事总经理、首席宏观研究员李奇霖认为,央行开展MLF操作目的有两个:一是6月共有4313亿元的MLF到期,现在放量有对冲到期的意味;二是现在银行体系超储仍处于低位,超额放量是给银行体系,补充跨季资金,稳定年中资金面。

不过,正如市场利率的即时反应,此次“补水”对缓解资金面紧张情绪的作用有限。“首先,金融去杠杆的政策意图未变,央行‘放水’只会是细水长流,以避免给市场宽松预期,这意味着‘补水’力度会偏弱。”李奇霖表示:“其次,流动性分层下,从央行手中拿到资金的大行会先给中小银行,然后再外溢至非银机构。由于银行负债端现在仍不稳,流动性下溢的量只会越来越小,对整个货币市场的改善作用有限。”

此外,宏观审慎评估体系(MPA)考核的压力仍在。“MPA考核在二季度显示趋严,4%资本缓冲地带的取消使银行调整压力加大,自身难保下,季末资管产品集中到期需要资金的非银机构更是骑虎难下。”李奇霖说。

在伍戈看来,此次央行“补水”量并不多,跨季资金面偏紧态势下,同期限Shibor利率和贷款基础利率依然倒挂。记者了解到,昨日早盘资金面略微偏紧,隔夜期资金仅有少量大型机构融出,且融出量较少,跨季资金依然有小量高价融出。日中资金面逐渐宽松,各大机构均有资金融出,直至尾盘有不少机构减点融出隔夜期资金。

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