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财经观察:拉美经济复苏的挑战与希望

2017-06-06 14:12:13   新华社

在经历了连续两年的萎缩后,拉美经济今年表现出复苏迹象,巴西、阿根廷等主要经济体有望重新实现经济增长。分析人士认为,当前拉美各国经济复苏前景面临不同挑战,但总体而言,拉美经济发展正“重回正轨”。

在最新一期《世界经济展望报告》中,国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计拉美经济将在2017年摆脱负增长,全年经济增长率在1.1%左右。

上海大学拉美研究中心主任江时学表示,从过去几十年拉美经济发展的轨迹来看,1.1%的经济增长率仍算低速水平。拉美国家众多,发展不平衡属于正常现象,但巴西、墨西哥和阿根廷等主要经济体的表现将直接影响整个地区的经济走势。

拉美第一大经济体巴西的经济复苏进程正受到政治和劳动力因素制约。自针对时任总统罗塞夫的弹劾程序启动以来,巴西政治动荡,公共财政急剧恶化,国际评级机构纷纷下调巴西主权信用评级。另外,腐败问题也干扰了巴西经济发展。今年4月,巴西联邦最高法院批准调查多名卷入巴西石油公司腐败案的政府部长和数十名议员,令巴西举国震惊。

巴西地理统计局公布的数据显示,今年第一季度巴西失业率达13.7%,创下2012年使用新统计方法以来新高。当季全国失业人口为1420万,同样创下历史新高。

墨西哥则面临国内生产力和创新能力不足等挑战,而且墨西哥经济高度依赖美国的现状没有改变。

墨西哥学者阿德里安娜·贝罗卡尔指出,如果美国提高对墨西哥商品征收的进口关税,尽管这不会过度影响两国贸易,但会导致墨西哥在北美自贸协定重新谈判中陷入较为被动的局面。

特朗普上台后,墨西哥比索对美元汇率今年1月一度贬值至22比1。分析人士指出,墨西哥比索进一步贬值将推动进口商品价格上升,导致输入性通货膨胀和经常项目赤字上升等一系列问题。

阿根廷亚洲与阿根廷研究中心首席经济学家古斯塔沃·吉拉多表示,阿根廷经济面临的主要问题在民生领域,物价飞涨和贫困人口增多既是经济低迷的产物,又阻碍了经济复苏进程。

古斯塔沃说,长期陷入“中等收入陷阱”致使阿根廷经济倒退,中产阶级规模不断减小,工资涨幅远低于物价涨幅,罢工和社会动乱不断,这些都严重影响了阿根廷经济复苏的节奏。

观察人士指出,尽管当前拉美各国面临不同挑战,但总体来说,拉美经济复苏形势正逐步向好,一些重要经济指标有明显改善。

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