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食品价格持续走低 预测称5月CPI环比或现下滑

2017-06-05 17:53:55   经济参考报

食品价格走低 5月CPI环比或现下滑

受低基数影响,同比涨幅料有所反弹

受食品价格持续走低影响,物价指数或继续低位运行。《经济参考报》记者综合多方预测,5月居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比或下跌,但受低基数影响,同比涨幅或有所反弹。

5月以来食品价格继续走低。商务部公布的每周食用农产品价格指数显示,5月前三周蔬菜、肉类、蛋类等主要农产品价格环比都出现了持续下跌,特别是蔬菜价格连跌三周。而这一趋势并没有在第四周停止,受到菜价猪价跌幅扩大的影响,食品整体价格环比跌幅明显扩大。鸡蛋市场价格更是一度创下10年新低。

因此,多家市场机构认为5月CPI环比会出现下跌。招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩认为,蔬菜和蛋价格跌幅较大,猪肉价格也连续4个月下跌,总体来看,食品价格依然弱势,预计5月食品环比涨幅为-0.9%,非食品环比涨幅为0.1%,CPI环比涨幅为-0.1%。

海通证券首席宏观债券分析师姜超也表示,5月以来食品价格继续走低,截至5月底,商务部和国家统计局公布的食品价格数据环比涨幅分别为-1.2%、-0.1%。因此,预测5月CPI食品价格环比下降0.4%。

但姜超和谢亚轩都认为,受到低基数影响,5月CPI同比涨幅将反弹至1.6%。中金公司首席经济学家梁红表示,随着食品价格同比跌幅开始收窄,且非食品CPI涨幅保持在2.4%-2.5%的区间,预计CPI将逐步上升,5月CPI同比增速将上升至1.5%。

交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,5月翘尾因素将从上月的0.56%回升至1.02%。初步判断5月CPI同比涨幅可能在1.4%-1.6%左右。虽然4、5月CPI同比连续两个月走高,但绝对涨幅并不高,仍然在2%以下的低水平徘徊,而且主要是翘尾因素带动,新涨价因素较弱。本轮以猪肉及鸡蛋为代表的食品价格持续走低可能有两方面的原因:表层的原因是短期内供求失衡;而深层次的原因则可能是居民消费升级导致的消费结构变化及经济下行期总需求的不足。

连平认为,从CPI同比的趋势来看,由于6月翘尾因素将达到年内最高点,预计下月CPI同比仍将继续走高,但下半年随着总需求的小幅回落、监管政策去杠杆防风险导致流动性有所收紧、市场利率小幅走高,这些都会导致物价承压。预计年内CPI同比将呈现中间高,两头低的走势,全年不会有明显的通胀压力,但是CPI同比也不会出现明显的回落从而陷入低通胀的局面。记者 林远 北京报道

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