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美元走强使发展中国家汇款流入减少

2017-04-24 17:23:07   中国经济网

上周末,在世界银行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)春季年会召开之际,世界银行发布报告称,全球汇款流入持续下降。数据的变动清晰地折射出2016年各地区的增长特点,以及美元走强对发展中国家的巨大冲击。

21日,世界银行发布的《移民与发展简报》显示,2016年,发展中国家汇款流入总额为4290亿美元,比2015年的4400多亿美元下降2.4%。这是发展中国家汇款流入连续第二年下降,也是近30年来所未曾有过的情况。

分析指出,这种下降趋势折射出去年全球不同地区经济的增长状况。从数据看,海合会国家和俄罗斯因油价低迷和经济增长乏力,直接影响到了南亚和中亚的汇款流入;欧洲增长疲弱则对北美和撒哈拉以南非洲的汇款流入产生影响。这中间,一些大型汇款接收国经历了汇款流入大幅下降。例如,印度去年汇款流入627亿美元,比2015年的689亿美元下降8.9%。此外,孟加拉(-11.1%)、尼日利亚(-10%)和埃及(-9.5%)等国的降幅也较大。

分析认为,除了经济增长外,汇率也是影响汇款流动的重要因素。去年在美联储加息预期下,美元指数持续上涨,全年涨幅3.8%,特别是启动加息的第四季度,美元指数上涨7%。在这种局面下,如果以美元计值,去年欧元、英镑和俄罗斯卢布对美元均出现贬值,对发展中国家造成了负面冲击,其中包括汇款流入严重下降。

对于发展中国家的千百万家庭而言,汇款是其重要的收入来源。汇款流入减少可能会对这些国家的普通家庭和居民医疗、教育或营养方面造成严重的负面影响。不过,随着近期全球复苏预期提高,发展中国家的汇款流入预计今年将有所回升。但是,依然需要高度警惕美联储政策变动对全球产生的负面效应。

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