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德银:中美全面贸易战概率不大

2016-12-21 10:06:45   

原标题:德银:中美全面贸易战概率不大

德银大中华区首席经济学家张智威近日发表研究报告称,中美全面贸易战的实际发生概率不大。报告指出,美国的根本目标在于缩小贸易逆差,促进经济增长以及将工作岗位带回美国,挑起对中国的贸易战或难以解决上述问题。

报告称,当前贸易数据或放大了中国对美国商品贸易逆差的影响,若发生贸易战,全球供应链上美国企业的利益将受牵连。报告称,名义数据显示2015年美国对中国的商品贸易逆差为3660亿美元,几乎占到美国商品贸易逆差总额的50%,但这一数字存在误导:中国对美出口中很大部分出自加工贸易,约37%实际来源于全球供应链上从其它国家进口的部件。报告经计算加工贸易影响后得出,中国或只占美国年度贸易赤字的约16%,仅略高于第二位日本的13%和第三位德国的11%。若中美发生贸易战,势必将牵扯全球供应链上的所有参与者,其中也包括一些美国公司。

德银认为,若要准确预判中美贸易战的发生风险和潜在影响,首先需要站在美国的角度客观分析美国发起贸易战的意图。对此,张智威总结为以下三点:缩小贸易逆差,促进经济增长,以及把工作岗位带回美国。

报告表示,若中美发生贸易战,美国从上述三点目标出发,会最优先关注以下行业:电子产品(包括计算机和手机)、电气设备、纺织品及服装、家具和汽车。但经详细推演后得出,在这些关键行业发动贸易战很难针对中国:对家具、纺织品和服装提高关税,可能会推高美国对其它发展中国家的逆差;中国汽车出口的规模有限;电气及电子产品又大多由跨国公司使用进口零部件制造。

德银表示,综上几点看,美国若想通过对中国的贸易战来达到意图,实际难度很大。另一种情况是,双方最终也许会采取其它方法来调整双边贸易失衡,例如,中国增加从美国的进口,或是扩大与美国的双边服务贸易。

(责编:孙博洋、夏晓伦)

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