新闻 > 经济
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China

德银:中美全面贸易战概率不大

2016-12-21 10:06:45   

原标题:德银:中美全面贸易战概率不大

德银大中华区首席经济学家张智威近日发表研究报告称,中美全面贸易战的实际发生概率不大。报告指出,美国的根本目标在于缩小贸易逆差,促进经济增长以及将工作岗位带回美国,挑起对中国的贸易战或难以解决上述问题。

报告称,当前贸易数据或放大了中国对美国商品贸易逆差的影响,若发生贸易战,全球供应链上美国企业的利益将受牵连。报告称,名义数据显示2015年美国对中国的商品贸易逆差为3660亿美元,几乎占到美国商品贸易逆差总额的50%,但这一数字存在误导:中国对美出口中很大部分出自加工贸易,约37%实际来源于全球供应链上从其它国家进口的部件。报告经计算加工贸易影响后得出,中国或只占美国年度贸易赤字的约16%,仅略高于第二位日本的13%和第三位德国的11%。若中美发生贸易战,势必将牵扯全球供应链上的所有参与者,其中也包括一些美国公司。

德银认为,若要准确预判中美贸易战的发生风险和潜在影响,首先需要站在美国的角度客观分析美国发起贸易战的意图。对此,张智威总结为以下三点:缩小贸易逆差,促进经济增长,以及把工作岗位带回美国。

报告表示,若中美发生贸易战,美国从上述三点目标出发,会最优先关注以下行业:电子产品(包括计算机和手机)、电气设备、纺织品及服装、家具和汽车。但经详细推演后得出,在这些关键行业发动贸易战很难针对中国:对家具、纺织品和服装提高关税,可能会推高美国对其它发展中国家的逆差;中国汽车出口的规模有限;电气及电子产品又大多由跨国公司使用进口零部件制造。

德银表示,综上几点看,美国若想通过对中国的贸易战来达到意图,实际难度很大。另一种情况是,双方最终也许会采取其它方法来调整双边贸易失衡,例如,中国增加从美国的进口,或是扩大与美国的双边服务贸易。

(责编:孙博洋、夏晓伦)

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20161221/30098672.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 10:28:21

Powered by China
China