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美媒:特朗普言行让人认为与中国贸易战不可避免

2016-12-23 07:50:14   

原标题:经济民粹主义上扬引人忧贸易战美国或将损失9332亿美元

记者肖岩蓝雅歌青木高颖崔杰通王渠柳直

特朗普由于与台湾地区领导人通电话遭受许多批评,他辩称要用台湾问题作为在经济上与北京讨价还价的筹码,如今重用纳瓦罗会是一个不祥之兆吗?现实是,世界经济依然低迷,没人想要一场贸易战,德媒称,美国走向极端贸易保护主义令人想起危险的上世纪30年代。

美国《财富》杂志22日的报道流露着悲观。报道称,特朗普的言行已使许多专家认为与中国的贸易战将不可避免,问题是会到什么程度,如果特朗普真要对中国产品征收35%-45%的关税,那将迅速造成完全决裂。

政治家或许可以轻巧地下令打贸易战而无须担心自己的衣食住行,但它实实在在关系着成千上万人的工作、生计和命运。本月初,美国CNBC网站就曾盘点“特朗普的贸易战将如何影响你所在的州”。文章说,中国代表着美国的一大出口市场,仅次于加拿大和墨西哥,2015年大约为1200亿美元,总体而言,不到美国出口的8%,GDP的1%。但中国市场对于西海岸的一些州意义重大,华盛顿州20%的出口,也就是近190亿美元的商品卖到中国。加州出口大约160亿美元的商品到中国,其中计算机等电子产品大概占1/4;得州110亿美元的商品出口到中国,包括化学制品、计算机、机械。报道说,美国的农业州向中国大量出口,中国是美国农产品的最大单一市场,差不多20%的农产品出口中国,2014年总价值约300亿美元,包括大豆、谷物、棉花、牛肉等。

中国国际问题研究院研究员杨希雨22日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,对纳瓦罗的任命是个非常明确的信号,表明特朗普对外贸易政策的取向,不要再对特朗普在贸易问题上抱任何不切实际的幻想。他们两人都是坚定的、明确的反全球化主义者。这是对全球释放的信号,不光是中国。杨希雨认为,分析美国、分析国际形势、分析任何事情的时候一定要避免本能性地对号入座,这是一种不自信。任命一个贸易顾问,根本撼动不了中国作为最大贸易国的既定贸易投资政策,更不会影响中国坚定不移的对外开放政策。

德国《世界报》担忧,纳瓦罗上位不是一个好兆头,民粹主义将进一步束缚全球经济政策。自由、开放的世界贸易时代将终结。

澳大利亚国立大学应用宏观经济学研究中心主任麦奇宾受世界银行委托进行贸易战研究,他上月在澳大利亚《金融评论报》撰文称,模拟发现,发动贸易战对美国没有好处,如果美国对所有进口商品提高40%关税,美国的GDP将下降1.2个百分点,如果所有国家都展开报复,美国GDP将下降5.2%个百分点(2015年美国GDP总量为179470亿美元,以此计算,美国的损失将高达9332亿美元——编者注),步入深度衰退。澳大利亚GDP在这场贸易战中将下降5.6个百分点,如果中国撤出,不再资助美国的预算赤字,美国遭受的经济地震将更加剧烈。《财富》杂志22日写道,“特朗普正进入未知水域,危险在于他认为对中国说硬话能带来好的效果。不会的,如果华盛顿对中国缺乏适当尊重,中国没办法和它打交道,中国已是世界第二大经济体,也不必委曲求全。”

责任编辑:丁勇 CN007
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