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央行19日以利率招标方式开展了1800亿元逆回购操作,其中包括950亿元的7天期、300亿元的14天期以及550亿元的28天期,中标利率分别为2.25%、2.40%与2.55%。由于周一有1150亿元逆回购资金到期,故全天实现资金净投放650亿元,较上周五增加逾四成。
虽然央行明显加大资金净投放力度,但依旧未能阻止市场资金价格上涨。数据显示,上海银行间同业拆放利率继续全线上涨。其中隔夜Shibor利率上涨0.50个基点为2.3350,7天期Shibor利率上涨0.60个基点为2.5250,14天期Shibor利率上涨1.40个基点为2.7260,28天期上涨1.50个基点为3.1695。
对此,有市场交易人士表示,近期央行在公开市场连续净投放资金,并开展近4000亿元MLF操作,主要意在稳定市场预期,避免恐慌情绪蔓延,但加权利率并未明显下行,货币政策在利率调节态度上也并未明显看到转变的信号。短期来看,临近年末考核之际,人民币贬值压力犹存,资本外流压力不减,资金面或持续偏紧。
需要指出的是,上周央行在公开市场累计开展逆回购8400亿元,当周有5900亿元逆回购到期,由此当周累计净投放2500亿元;此外上周五央行还对19家金融机构开展MLF操作共3940亿元。而本周(12月17日-12月23日)央行公开市场有6300亿元逆回购到期,周一到周五的逆回购到期量分别为1150亿元、850亿元、1200亿元、1600亿元和1500亿元。因为无正回购和央票到期,若央行不进行其他操作,公开市场将自然净回笼6300亿元。另外,周二有600亿元国库现金定存到期。
国金证券认为,防风险是2017年经济工作的重点。与债券和货币政策相关的风险在于债券市场的加杠杆和房地产市场的资产泡沫,后期预计资金面偏紧的格局将会持续,M1增速也会持续下行。
(责编:乔雪峰、杨曦)
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