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社科院: 明年GDP或增长6.5%左右

2016-12-20 10:39:19   

原标题:社科院: 明年GDP或增长6.5%左右

中国社科院19日发布的《经济蓝皮书:2017年中国经济形势分析与预测》提出:2017年,我国全年国内生产总值(GDP)增长6.5%左右;全社会固定资产投资将实际增长8.7%,增速回落1.7个百分点;社会消费品零售总额实际增长8.8%,增速回落0.6个百分点;居民消费价格指数(CPI)为2.2%,比2016年增加0.2个百分点;工业生产价格指数(PPI)为1.6%,比2016年增加3.7个百分点,通胀压力逐渐显现。

蓝皮书称,2016年中国经济增长总体呈现平稳态势,第一、二、三季度GDP增长率均为6.7%,第四季度预计不会低于这一水平,全年增速有望略高于6.7%。

中国社科院数量经济与技术经济研究所经济模型室主任娄峰表示,2016年中国经济形势总的特征可以概括为五个方面。第一是经济增长的速度平稳,波动幅度减小。第二是通缩压力减缓,通胀因素加剧。第三是固定资产投资增速下滑,投资结构分化。第四是居民购房贷款增长过快,企业中长期贷款增速明显下降。第五是国际收支基本平衡,但是外汇储备持续减少,人民币贬值压力增大。根据宏观经济模型预测,2016年经济增速在6.7左右,增速比上年回落0.2个百分点,实现年初预期的6.5%-7.0%的增长目标,继续保持在中高速适当的增长区间。

(责编:孙博洋、杨曦)

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