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猪肉市场投放量充足 同比价格降幅大

2016-10-26 16:46:56   中国经济网

猪肉市场投放量年同比下降,猪肉价格却不升反降。这说明,不是今年消费需求不旺,而是去年同期猪肉价格存在水分

从猪肉价格季节性波动的规律看,8月初白条猪价格都是阶段性高点,随后几个月很难突破,肉价进入下行通道是大概率事件

农业部最新监测数据显示,10月21日全国农产品批发市场每公斤猪肉平均价格为23.18元,比6月份第2周的31.29元下跌了8.11元。“6月中旬后,肉猪价开始下跌。不少同行大量补栏,肉猪压栏惜售,想等价格涨回去大赚一笔,可到现在还没见涨。”存栏生猪5000头的湖北省蕲春县振农实业公司董事长胡基政接受《经济日报》记者采访时说。

近期,猪价年同比价格降幅呈加速趋势,对期望行情重回今年春夏高点的养猪户而言,这不是个好消息。10月21日,有全国农副产品行情晴雨表之称的北京新发地农副产品批发市场白条猪的平均批发价是每公斤18.26元,虽然比10月14日的18.00元小幅上涨了1.44%,但比9月21日的20.56元大幅下降了11.19%,比2015年10月21日的20.8元更大幅下降12.21%,月环比、年同比均大幅下跌。“上上周白条猪平均批发价年同比价格下降10%,上周同比下降12.21%,年同比价格降幅呈加速趋势。”北京新发地农副产品批发市场统计部经理刘通说。

另一个值得关注的现象是,猪肉市场投放量年同比下降,猪肉价格却不升反降。上周北京新发地白条猪日均上市量为1849.71头,而去年同期日均上市量为1963.14头,年同比上市量下降6.62%。“虽然供应量不及去年同期,价格却明显低于去年同期。这说明,不是今年消费需求不旺,而是去年同期猪肉价格存在水分。”刘通认为,当前猪肉价格回落正是一种理性回归。

猪价持续下跌,原因在于供应充足。“上周日均上市量高于往日,仅比国庆长假期间略低,说明毛猪供应能力正稳步增强。”刘通说。从抢占市场份额、降低单头猪的屠宰成本角度看,屠宰企业当然希望尽可能多地屠宰生猪,然而上市量没有明显增加,完全是因为屠宰企业担心一旦上市量增加,售价就会下降,故而人为控制猪肉投放量。

生猪供应充足还在于国内外价格差距悬殊,刺激猪肉进口量大幅增长。海关数据显示,今年前7个月,我国进口猪肉94.57万吨,同比猛涨149.4%,比2015年全年进口量都要高出21.6%。国内猪价长期高于国际市场,以今年一季度为例,进口猪肉每公斤到岸价比国内规模以上生猪定点屠宰企业白条猪肉出厂价便宜12元。当前,国内猪肉价格虽有所回落,但仍远高于国际市场价。巨大的价格差距将继续刺激猪肉进口,以平抑国内猪肉价格。

实际上,早在去年9月份,猪肉价格就已经见顶回落。在经历20多周连续大涨之后,去年9月第二周,广东、福建、浙江等南方主销省份生猪价格纷纷下跌,带动黑龙江、吉林、山东、河南等主产省份猪价下跌。然而,入冬后多地遭遇强寒流天气,湖北、河南等主产省份猪场新生猪仔大面积死亡,造成肉猪供应短缺,导致猪价重新走牛。随着气候转暖,猪仔成活率恢复正常,肉猪逐步供应充足,猪价当然要重回下跌通道。“强寒流天气结束已经有半年时间,从猪仔育肥出栏需半年左右时间看,目前上市的都是强寒流天气之后出生的肉猪。从猪肉价格季节性波动的规律看,8月初白条猪价格都是阶段性高点,随后几个月很难突破,肉价进入下行通道是大概率事件。”刘通说。(经济日报记者 黄俊毅)

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