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人民币汇率迎来“六连涨”

2017-09-05 04:21:51   中国青年网

本报讯(记者 范晓)人民币汇率9月迎来“开门红”。据中国外汇交易中心最新数据显示,2017年9月4日人民币对美元汇率中间价上涨241个基点,报6.5668,为连续第六个交易日上涨,创2016年6月23日以来最高水平。

近来,人民币汇率在外汇市场独领风骚,在主流货币中表现十分亮眼。今年8月人民币对美元平均汇率报6.6736,较7月上调918.29个基点,月均涨幅为1.38%。对此,工银国际研究部主管、首席经济学家程实认为,人民币汇率稳定的三大关键支柱已然形成,为长期走势趋稳奠定了基础。

从内因看,今年初的预期管理不仅有效打破汇率下调的共识,更对下挫心理形成长效化抑制;从外因看,由于美元的“特朗普行情”终结,人民币汇率运行情景改善,汇率政策摆脱两难困局;从基本面看,“8·11”汇改至今,人民币有效汇率高估压力的释放已阶段性完成,在人民币中间价形成机制中引入逆周期因子正当其时。

中国银行国际金融研究所研究员王有鑫告诉记者,中美利差进一步扩大也是不容忽视的因素之一。

“最近两周,央行公开市场操作净回笼货币6100亿元,7月新增社会融资回落,M2增速下滑,市场流动性紧张,市场利率持续走高。与此相反,美国长期国债收益率走低,中美利差扩大,吸引了资本流入。”王有鑫表示,美元指数短期不会有明显利好,再加上我国的经济基本面持续向好,预计人民币汇率有望继续走高。

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