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人民币对美元中间价报6.5668 再创去年6月以来新高

2017-09-04 18:17:28   央广网

央广网北京9月4日消息(记者张棉棉)据中国之声《新闻晚高峰》报道,中国外汇交易中心的数据显示,今天(4日),人民币对美元中间价报6.5668,上日中间价6.5909,上调241点,再创去年6月以来新高。哪些原因导致人民币对美元汇率节节攀升?人民币汇率攀升,对我们的生活未来又会带来哪些影响?

连日来,人民币对美元中间价不断上涨。在中间价的带动下,更多反映市场预期的人民币对美元即期汇率表现更为强劲。今天,在以6.5555开盘后,人民币对美元即期汇率随即升破6.55关口,最高升至6.5488。而更多反映国际市场预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率也在中间价出炉后直线拉升至6.555一线。

这已经是连续第六天人民对对美元中间价上调。8月份,人民币对美元升幅达到2%,创2005年7月以来最大单月涨幅,并且连续第四个月保持上涨。中国银行外汇交易员刘彬说,今年人民币汇率的表现趋于理性,市场的交易更多是出自真实需求。

尽管上周美元指数出现反弹,但人民币对美元汇率在岸和离岸市场均不断刷新去年年中以来的新高。这与上周五落幕的杰克逊霍尔全球央行研讨会不无关系。美联储主席耶伦在会议上对货币政策“避而不谈”,更多强调应温和地调整金融监管;欧洲央行行长德拉吉也未提及退出量化宽松(QE)路线,但表态称全球及欧元区经济复苏增强,并肯定了QE政策对欧元区经济稳健复苏的贡献。两位重量级“大佬”的表态均比预期更偏鸽派,导致美元走弱,人民币对美元相应升值。再加上美国经济放缓也拖累了美元的升值脚步。

国内来说,我国经济自身也非常给力。一、二季度均实现了6.9%的经济增速,明显高于全球平均水平。今年前7个月,我国货物贸易进出口比去年同期增长18.5%,外贸形势的持续改善,使得上半年我国国际收支中,经常项目实现712亿的顺差,我国国际收支自2014年以来,首次连续第二个季度实现双顺差。

人民币升值,意味着我们的钱包更“鼓”了。那么,对我们普通人来说,具体会有哪些影响呢?首先是,出国旅游更方便了,同时,海外留学少了后顾之忧,第三,也会利好债市与股市。随着人民币的走稳,中国境内金融市场开放度上升,国际资本也在通过不同渠道加持人民币资产,最明显的就是境外机构大量增持人民币国债。

如果人民币汇率进一步升值,境外机构配置国内债券的意愿将更加强烈。一旦外汇占款恢复,将推动银行存款重新上升,有助于降低银行对同业存单等同业负债的依赖,更有利于整体利率的下降。整体利率的走低,对人民币资产来说,肯定是一个利好消息。

申银万国证券研究所首席宏观分析师李慧勇认为,目前,人民币单边贬值已经结束,未来会进入一个区间震荡。

不过,李慧勇也提醒,对人民币短期大涨也不能过度乐观。

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