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人民币连创新高 支持A股慢牛小跑

2017-08-30 09:38:00   中国经济网

中国外汇交易中心的数据显示,8月29日,人民币对美元中间价报6.6293,升值60个基点,连续第二天创下2016年8月19日来最高。8月29日,人民币对美元中间价更是大涨226个基点,报1美元兑6.6353元人民币。伴随着人民币的持续走强,又会对A股市场产生哪些影响呢?

支持慢牛格局

随着人民币基本面持续改善,人民币汇率企稳正成为市场共识。中信证券指出,长期来看人民币有望稳步升值。

这对于A股市场来说意味着什么?中信证券进一步指出,决定A股市场未来走势的三个核心变量是汇率、利率和PPI,未来两个月依然是比较重要的做多窗口。其中,对A股市场来说,美元走弱、人民币升值、海外资金持续流入,这是过去几个月A股市场震荡走强的核心原因,未来A股市场依然能享受这种“新兴市场溢价”。

同时,万家基金表示,通过外汇交易员等了解到,本次升值是市场自发行为,企业在6.7关口选择了大量结汇。这显示人民币开始步入良性升值轨道,带来的中长期影响会比较明显。人民币资产配置热情会上升,外汇占款会改善,有利于利率下行和A股。

而在英大证券首席经济学家李大霄看来,“人民币转为小幅度升值,加上我国外汇储备重新回升,资金外流的局面得到有效控制,对股票市场形成正面作用,有力地支持了A股的慢牛格局,这是重要的利好消息。”

利好三大板块

既然人民币升值利好A股,那么哪些板块又将有望收获“升值红利”呢?

在二级市场上,主要受到影响的是汇兑损益。其中,供给关系、油价、汇率是影响航空公司业绩的三大因素。由于航空公司有大规模美元负债,所以人民币升值会在汇兑方面产生盈利。对此,华创证券指出,汇率波动对航空公司影响主要有两个方面。一是航空公司有巨额外币负债,人民币波动将产生巨额汇兑损益。另一方面,随着累计波动幅度的提高,对出境游的影响也比较明显。据机构预测,以当前汇率水平测算中国国航、南方航空实现汇兑净收益将超过15亿元以上,下半年盈利水平有望超预期。

其二受益的则是造纸业,由于造纸行业依赖进口木浆和废纸,人民币升值将节约原材料进口成本。A股公司中,太阳纸业、晨鸣纸业、青山纸业等行业龙头个股都有望享受人民币购买力提升的红利。

此外,采掘、石油化工等资源类上市公司。这类公司不仅美元借款占比大,而且对大宗商品进口需求大,人民币升值将形成一次性的汇兑收益,以及降低原材料进口成本。

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