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【深度观察】中美若发生“贸易战”将没有赢家

2017-08-25 09:11:45   中国青年网

中美经济合作百日计划结束不久,中美经贸关系就被泼了一瓢冷水。8月14日(美国时间),特朗普签署总统备忘,指令美贸易代表莱特希泽决定是否就中国有关法律、政策、实践或做法可能不合理或歧视性地损害美国知识产权、创新或技术发展展开调查。8月18日(美国时间),莱特希泽宣布正式对中国发起“301调查”。

所谓“301调查”源自美国《1974年贸易法》第301条,该条款授权美国贸易代表可对他国的“不合理或不公正贸易做法”发起调查,并可在调查结束后建议美国总统实施单边制裁,包括撤销贸易优惠、征收报复性关税、限制进口等。

301条款被称为美国贸易保护的“核武器”,其赋予贸易代表极大的权力。美国贸易代表可以不顾美国国内其他法律及国际条约准则的任何规定,同时还可以进行跨领域报复。

根据有关统计,《1974年贸易法》出台至今,美国政府一共发起了122次“301调查”。但在世贸组织(WTO)成立后,这条单边主义色彩浓厚的条款很少使用,“301调查”也再未产生过实际作用。

8月21日,商务部新闻发言人就美国对华启动“301调查”回应表示,美方无视世贸组织规则,依据国内法对华发起贸易调查,是不负责任的,对中方的指责是不客观的。如果美方不顾事实、不尊重多边贸易规则而采取损害双方经贸关系的举动,中方绝不会坐视,必将采取所有适当措施,坚决捍卫中方合法权益。

“对华使用一项过时的美国贸易法条款,其代价是巨大的。”美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员查得·布朗认为,外界对于特朗普上任以来,采取一系列措施破坏以规则为基础的贸易承诺和几十年来建立国际合作的努力早有微词,启动“301调查”无疑将雪上加霜。

不少专家担心,美国的做法可能招来他国效仿,最终破坏国际社会建立的多边规则。美国前贸易代表迈克尔·弗罗曼日前警告说,过去数十年,历届美国政府都要求其他国家遵守全球贸易规则,如果特朗普政府绕开世贸组织而采取过时的单边制裁措施,其他国家将可对美国展开合法报复。

今年1月~7月中美贸易总值达2.18万亿元,增长20.6%,中国已超过加拿大成为美国最大贸易伙伴,而美国是仅次于欧盟的中国第二大贸易伙伴,中美经济规模加起来约占全球经济总规模的40%……考虑到“贸易战”可能带来的严重后果,不少业内人士认为,此番美国对华发起“301调查”并非“真枪实弹”,而是为了获取更多谈判筹码。

自世贸组织建立后,“301调查”虽未产生最终效力,但一直作为美国向他国施压、促使对方妥协的工具存在。此前,中国曾五次遭遇美国的“301调查”,最终均以谈判协商收尾。

此次“301调查”如何收场,最终将给中美贸易带来何种影响仍不确定。可以明确的是,中美经贸合作将继续推进,中美贸易摩擦也将继续存在,中美若发生“贸易战”将没有赢家。

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