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危险的不是军演 而是时机

2017-08-24 05:46:45   中国青年网

虽然美韩联合军演年年搞,朝鲜也年年威胁要强硬回击,然而,今年的“乙支自由卫士”军演却似乎格外令各方“剑拔弩张”,问题就出在“时机”上。

“此次(军演的)时机过于危险,美韩应该推迟举行这次联合军事演习。”美国布鲁金斯学会高级研究员凯瑟琳·穆恩8月21日分析说,“美国有能力与韩国在一年当中的任何时候举行联合军演。在这个事情上灵活安排从而取得我们希望取得的外交成果,不是软弱,而是实力。”

穆恩认为在朝鲜展示洲际导弹能力、发出关岛攻击威胁,相关各方却未能提出彻底解决方案的大背景下,任何举动都可能触发危机重燃,“并且来得更加猛烈”。

事实上,穆恩的担心不无道理。在此次军演中,不论是美军四巨头亲赴韩国督导,还是美国派出B1-B“枪骑兵”轰炸机演练“先发制人摧毁朝鲜核武与导弹设施”的举动,都极有可能会刺激朝鲜作出强烈反应,而反击的目标是谁?反击形式是试射导弹还是新的核试验,目前还不得知。

时机是“危险”的另一个证据来自仍未结束的“八月危机”。

每年的8月是欧美领导人的夏季休假时间,但假期常被突如其来的“麻烦事”打断,故被媒体称为“八月危机”。以往,“八月危机”通常与俄罗斯有关,然而,今年焦点却转移到了朝鲜半岛。不论是朝鲜7月末成功试射洲际导弹,还是美朝领导人接连“隔空斗狠”,又或是朝鲜首次公开的“关岛攻击”计划,都令各方精神紧绷。

上周,中国外交部长王毅与俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫、德国副总理兼外长加布里尔通电话,谈话重点也都是如何力防朝鲜半岛出现“八月危机”。如今,美韩军演开练,朝美军方之间又开始了新一轮的强硬喊话。英国伦敦皇家国际问题研究所专家詹姆斯·汉纳警告说:“随着调门的升级,自负的行为以及过度反应的可能性都会上升。”

南京大学国际关系研究院院长、南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心执行主任朱锋教授则认为,朝核问题上的“八月危机”,应该成为打破半岛核僵局的“八月转机”。否则,朝核问题的危险“临界点”一旦被跨越,各方的转圜空间都将越来越小。他指出中国是维护朝鲜半岛无核、稳定与和平不可或缺的重要力量,尽快让朝核问题重回外交与政治解决的合理轨道,是国际社会的当务之急。

中国外交部发言人华春莹在8月21日、22日也连续两天就美韩军演表态说,美韩举行“联合军演”不利于缓解当前半岛的局势紧张,不利于各方促谈的努力。华春莹说,半岛形势当前高度复杂敏感,也很脆弱,需要朝、美、韩等半岛问题直接当事方切实作出更大努力来缓和紧张的局面。中方敦促美韩及其他相关方认真对待和积极考虑“双暂停”倡议,采取有利于缓和紧张局势、有利于尽快恢复和谈以妥善解决半岛核问题的建设性行动,而不是做火上浇油的事。

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