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文在寅能否抓住半岛问题的主导权

2017-08-23 05:41:46   中国青年网

8月15日,韩国总统文在寅在光复72周年纪念活动上发表讲话时强调:“未经韩方同意,任何一方都不得在韩半岛(朝鲜半岛)动武。”强势表态震惊世界,引发国际众多媒体转载。文在寅或许是在为自己壮胆,或许是在为韩国被忽略、被边缘化而抗议,文在寅希望能抓住半岛问题的主导权,但是,难度比希望更大。

近日,朝美互怼,相互威胁攻击对方的目标,朝鲜半岛紧张局势陡然升级。朝美打嘴仗,吸引了世界舆论的目光,韩国却插不上嘴,难以掩饰被边缘化的心态。近期在韩国社会尤其在韩国政界和舆论界都在议论“Korea Passing(跳过韩国)”一词,意思是在处理朝鲜半岛外交和安全事务中将韩国排除在外。而韩国政府极力否定“跳过韩国”,并表示完全无法理解为什么会有这种说法。

然而,现实却是相当残酷的。文在寅上台以来多次提议举行朝韩双边会谈,朝鲜一直没有响应韩方的提议,韩国难免有失落之感。不仅如此,在朝鲜半岛核问题上,朝鲜也一再公开表明绕过韩国只与美国打交道的意图。今年5月底文在寅访美时,美国虽然承诺支持韩国行使半岛事务主导权,但在朝鲜第二次试射洲际弹道导弹后,在加强对朝制裁等对朝政策方面美国并未认真地同韩国商量。显然,韩国只是个被边缘化的角色。

所以,文在寅的上述呐喊,既是为了在韩国国民面前挽回面子,增强自信,也是一种抗议和发泄。当然,文在寅也在努力创造条件,力图使韩国在半岛事务中取得主导权。其近期措施主要有:

首先,文在寅抢在美国前面给朝鲜划定“红线”。美国虽然多次提出过“红线”的说法,借此对朝鲜提出警告,但“红线”究竟是什么,美国一直没有具体说明,是一个模糊的概念。8月17日,文在寅在青瓦台举行的就职百日记者会上,他将“红线”界定为朝鲜完成开发部署搭载核弹头的洲际弹道导弹,并表示朝鲜正在接近“红线”。韩国外交部发言人赵俊赫17日在例行记者会上被问及韩方是否将“红线”内容与美方共享时表示,原则上来说,韩美各级别在朝鲜、朝核问题等领域都保持紧密的协商和合作,文在寅在记者会上的发言也同样建立在此基础上。显然,文在寅是试图变被动为主动,增强韩国的发言权。

第二,文在寅力图推动从美国手里收回战时作战指挥权。文在寅上台以来就提出从美国手里收回战时作战指挥权,相对上两届保守政府即李明博和朴槿惠政府在此问题上无期限延长的政策而言无疑是一个巨大进步。文在寅8月20日在出席一个仪式时强调:“为了加强惩戒朝鲜核导挑衅和自主防卫能力,他将履行所有职责和权限,在早日建成‘韩国型三轴体系’和收回战时作战指挥权方面不遗余力。”这也是文在寅在争取半岛问题的主动权。

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