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国企混改或成市场新风口

2017-08-21 09:07:04   中国经济网

上周三晚间,中国联通780亿元的混改方案一出炉,即引发了市场的热议。随后两个交易日,央企改革概念股纷纷大涨。上周五,发改委新闻发言人孟玮表示,混合所有制改革第三批试点企业目前正在按程序报批,第三批混改试点除央企外,还将遴选部分地方国企纳入试点。对此,多位业内人士表示,国企改革方案下半年有望密集亮相,将成为市场的一大热点,投资者可关注铁路、军工、电力等行业的改革进程,提前布局相关公司。

联通混改受益几何?

备受市场关注的中国联通混改方案上周三晚间出台。方案显示,战略投资者将认购90亿股中国联通A股,百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯、京东拟入股联通A股。联通A股拟向战略投资者以非公开发行不超过90.37亿股,并由联通集团向结构调整基金协议转让约19亿联通A股,同时向核心员工授予不超过约8.48亿股限制性联通A股。上述交易总对价约780亿元。

值得一提的是,除了四大互联网巨头,中国人寿、苏宁云商、网宿科技、用友网络、宜通世纪等垂直行业领先企业也将入股。市场普遍预期,中国联通将于本周复牌,除了联通A股与港股,即将入股的几家A股公司也有望受益。

方正证券通信行业分析师马军表示,未来中国联通在公司治理、激励机制、业务发展、网络利用等方面发挥出极大作用,充分释放其潜力。全球运营商平均PB(市净率)为2-2.5倍左右,而港股联通PB为1.1左右,当前属于低估;考虑混改会带来净资本的增加与业绩快速增长的程度,A股联通PB估值应在全球平均水平之上,给予2.5倍以上。

“联通A股复牌后会上涨,但很难连续多个涨停,”一位不愿具名的券商分析师坦言,“市场对于联通A股的混改此前已有预期,这从该股去年9月底至今涨幅接近一倍已可看出。相较而言,联通港股估值更低,机会更大。至于此次参股联通的公司,也会跟随上涨,但是由于参股比例不大,很难有大的空间。”

中信证券认为,中国联通混改落地,方案整体超预期,对运营实体有积极促进作用,重点推荐中国联通港股,关注A股复牌的交易机会;引入的垂直行业投资者业务有协同,依托联通合作有望扩展自身业务版图提升盈利能力,重点推荐网宿科技、宜通世纪。为中国联通提升技术服务支撑的企业,重点推荐大数据方面的天源迪科、东方国信。

哪些板块蕴藏机会?

事实上,作为本轮国企改革的突破口,今年以来混合所有制改革步伐进一步加大。发改委确定的首批央企混改试点包括东航集团、中国联通、南方电网、哈电集团、中国核建、中国船舶等央企。截至目前,东航和联通的混改方案已相继出炉。与此同时,第二批10家试点央企中,也有多家央企混改方案被批复。除试点企业外,今年包括中国铁路总公司、中国兵器工业集团、中国兵器装备集团、中国电力建设集团、中国船舶重工集团以及中粮集团等央企均在积极制订混改方案。

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