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美贸易政策日趋保守

2017-08-21 06:11:47   中国青年网

上周最令人关注的事件,莫过于美国宣布对华发起“301调查”。此举引发了全球对中美可能展开贸易战的忧虑。与此同时,北美自贸协定在分歧中也于上周开始重谈。这些变化,在一定程度上反映出美国贸易政策的保守倾向日益加剧。

14日,美国总统特朗普签署行政备忘录,授权贸易代表莱特希泽审查所谓的“中国贸易行为”,包括中国在技术转让等知识产权领域的做法。18日,莱特希泽宣布对中国发起“301调查”。美方的行为受到中方的明确反对。中国商务部于日前指出,若美方不顾事实采取行动,中方将采取所有适当措施,坚决捍卫中方合法权益。有分析认为,美国此次挑起对华贸易争端,明里是其国内保护主义势力使然,暗中也是服务其当前国内政治的需要。但是,考虑到中美经济目前“你中有我、我中有你”的紧密格局,“301调查”给美国带来的好处极其有限,一旦引发贸易战,两败俱伤将是大概率事件。

除了对华开启“301调查”,上周美国还与加拿大和墨西哥展开了首轮北美自由贸易协定重新谈判进程。美国希望通过重新谈判北美自由贸易协定缩减贸易逆差,收紧对汽车和配件原产地的规定等。分析认为,考虑到北美自贸协定生效已23年,很多条款的确需要根据当前实际情况作出修改。但是,由于美国设定了降低贸易逆差这一硬杠杠,美国的“更公平”理念与加墨两国倡导的“更自由”原则严重冲突,因此谈判能否达成协议,并不令人乐观。

当前,最为引人关注的是美国在对华贸易调查和北美自由贸易协定重新谈判中所持态度及其做法。美国贸易政策日趋保守以及由此产生的实质性转变,将对全球贸易乃至世界经济带来怎样的影响,需要密切观察。

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