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农业机械化对城镇化及城乡收入差距的影响
2017-08-17 13:06:37 中国青年网
原标题:张英丽:农业机械化对城镇化及城乡收入差距的影响
[摘 要]农业机械化的发展对于中国农村与城镇经济发展格局至关重要。基于此,本文研究中国农业机械化发展对城镇化及城乡收入差距的影响。理论方面,构建了农业机械化影响城镇化与城乡收入差距的模型,发现农业机械化通过提高农村生产力水平,释放农村劳动力,推动城镇化,来缩减城乡收入差距。实证方面,研究发现:(1)农业机械化短期内可以推动城镇化发展,但在较长时期不显著;(2)短期内农业机械化会导致收入差距加大,但在较长时期可以显著缩减城乡收入差距,而城镇化的发展无法缩减城乡收入差距;(3)农业机械化较低省份农业机械化对于促进城镇化发展及缩减城乡收入差距作用更为显著。作为农村经济发展主要推动因素之一,关于农业机械化的研究能够为城镇化建设及缩减城乡收入差距提供更为精准的政策建议。
一直以来,中国的农村、农业和农民问题是非常重要的议题,而解决农村农业和农民问题的关键在于农村的经济发展。“十三五”规划中明确提出,要提高农业技术装备和信息化水平,加快推进农业机械化,来持续提高农民收入。由此可见农业机械化对于中国农村与城镇发展格局至关重要。农业机械化释放出的农村劳动力转移至城镇,从而关系着另一重大议题——城镇化发展。农村劳动力向城镇转移,主要驱动力之一是城镇较高的劳动报酬,因此,农业机械化和城镇化与城乡收入差距紧密相关。基于此,本文结合当前中国农村经济发展现状,从理论和实证角度来研究农业机械化对城镇化和城乡收入差距的影响,从而探寻以推进农业机械化发展为支点推进城镇化发展与降低收入差距的精准建议。
一、模型与数据分析
(一)数据选取
本文研究的主要内容是农业机械化对于城镇化的影响,以及农业机械化和城镇化对于城乡收入差距的影响,并回答农业机械化变化对于城镇化和城乡收入差距短期和长期的影响。因此,本文采用的是1998-2014年中国31个省市行政区的面板数据,其中农业机械化以人均农用机械总动力来表示,利用农村农用机械总动力除以农村人口得到;利用各省市的城镇人口占比来表示城镇化率;利用各省市城镇与农村的收入差距来表示城乡收入差距。农用机械总动力和农村人口来自《中国农村统计年鉴》,城镇化率与城乡收入差距数据来自于《中国统计年鉴》和《中国农村统计年鉴》。
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