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500之后望600“酒疯子”茅台慎防“灰犀牛”

2017-08-15 11:17:48   中国经济网

昨日,A股市场喜气洋洋,指数和行业板块普涨的情况下,多只个股盘中创出历史新高。其中,近两年多来A股市场中独树一帜的“大牛股”——贵州茅台继续新高秀,成为A股史上首只站上500元关口的个股。业内人士指出,茅台个案代表了白马股受追捧的态势,但是也需要留一份理性与谨慎。

贵州茅台盘中突破500元

昨日贵州茅台小幅高开后,快速拉升,午后持续走高,盘中最高触及500.10元,再创历史新高,并且创出A股历史上的股价新纪录。最终,茅台上涨3.26%收于499.83元。

回顾历史走势,自2014年初以来,贵州茅台就开始了一轮独立牛市格局。股价从阶段低点89.94元开始一路上扬,至昨日已经最高触及500.10元。自2015年股市大跌行情结束以来,其股价上涨了两倍有余。而值得一提的是,自2015年股市大跌以来,上证指数一直没能恢复到巅峰时期的高位,较当时相比仍低近40%。但是,作为A股第一高价股的茅台却并没有因为大跌而止步不前。与最巅峰的价格相比,茅台股价已上涨了超过七成。

A股昨日的行情也十分给力,创业板指和中小板指领涨,深市主要指数均涨逾2%,沪指也上涨0.9%。全部A股中共有2879只个股收红,而仅有186只个股收绿。其中,共有43只个股涨停,而仅有1只个股跌停。

据wind数据统计显示,剔除今年上市的新股之后,共有中炬高新、贵州茅台和法拉电子三只个股在昨日创出历史新高。

从资金流向来看,昨日沪深两市获得逾125亿元的资金净流入,其中超大单净流入逾122亿元。其中,计算机、电子、公用事业和建筑装饰板块的净流入额均超过12亿元,分别为42.24亿元、27.65亿元、14.74亿元和12.44亿元。

个股方面,昨日科大讯飞的主力净流入额最高,达到10.91亿元;首创股份、北方稀土的净流入额也分别达到7.35亿元和5.45亿元;贵州茅台昨日获得2.85亿元的资金净流入额。

谨慎看待新高秀

显然,相较于其他A股亦或是上市白酒公司,贵州茅台是一个个案,其估值和股价的表现是无可比拟的。对于茅台的新高秀和白马股的持续强势,此前诸多券商已经给了较为乐观的预期,有甚者看高到600元上方。不过面对着估值的逐步走高,市场分歧和谨慎的声音开始占优。

中阅资本总经理孙建波指出,白马股从年初开始就一直在上涨,涨幅也不小。只是白马股业绩很稳定,很多属于消费类,并有品牌效应,公司也有成长性。虽然长期来看成长空间看好,但需要时间来换取空间,短期内要等待更好的介入时点。另外,也要规避当前的地缘局势风险,等待合适的时机介入。这里要提的是,白酒板块近期走势抢眼,茅台接近500元,五粮液创出新高。这是市场对于双节将至,白酒消费旺季到来的预期。不过股价一般都是提前反映市场的预期,短期介入需要谨慎。

西南证券首席分析师张刚认为,累计较大涨幅的周期股、白马股尽管财务数据优良,但已经提前在股价上充分体现,而目前则进入到利好兑现过程。从市场操作层面看,部分白马股、周期股已经创出时间跨度很长的高点甚至历史高点,获利盘相当丰厚,若要进一步向上拓展空间,需要更多的场外资金进场拉抬,以目前国际股市普跌的情况看,难以聚集多头力量。

不过光大证券余纯认为,消费白马方面,对最具代表性的白酒、白电板块的PE、PB的绝对水平都处于较高位置,但PEG指标显示盈利、估值的匹配度依然不错,另外,沪深港通北上资金对消费白马最为青睐,随着A股国际化程度逐渐提高,优秀的消费白马可以继续关注。

华安证券首席宏观分析师徐阳提示广大投资者,随着资本市场生态转好,中国经济逐渐复苏,以茅台为代表的龙头股价格会出现回调,市场会恢复冷静。(记者 张怡)

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