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CTA基金爱上量化投资

2017-08-10 08:14:59   

CTA(Commodity Trading Advisor)基金,又称管理期货(Managed Futures)基金,是指广大投资者将资金集中起来,委托给专业的期货投资机构,并通过商品交易顾问(CTA)进行期货投资交易,投资者承担投资风险并享有投资利润的一种集合投资方式。

“虽然CTA策略的名字中有‘商品’字样,但那是因为早期期货市场只有商品期货,今天CTA基金的实际投资对象已经超出商品的范畴。”明曦资本CEO张曦表示,CTA基金主要通过商品期货和金融期货来管理资产,投资领域包括利率期货、债券期货、股指期货、外汇期货、基本金属期货、贵金属期货、能源期货以及农产品期货等。

据了解,自2010年以来,CTA基金开始进入国内,主要是私募形式。随着基金专户投资范围的逐步开放,CTA基金开始以基金专户的形式存在,其产品运作更加公开,成为更多投资者资产组合配置的必要工具。总体来看,目前国内CTA基金的总体规模还处于初步发展阶段,市场上以期货为主要投资标的的产品约1000只左右。

按照投资方法来划分,CTA基金主要可分为两大类。一类是主观CTA,即由基金管理人基于基本面、调研或操盘经验,主观来判断走势,决定买卖时点;另一类是量化CTA,是通过分析建立数量化的交易策略模型,由模型产生的买卖信号进行投资决策。从目前市场上来看,量化投资成为CTA基金主流模式。

张曦表示,“很多人提到CTA基金的主要投资标的——期货,第一反应都是觉得期货带杠杆,风险大,但采用量化方法来投资期货能在获取收益的同时很好地管理风险。量化CTA基金采用完全程序化的投资策略,可以避免贪婪和恐惧的人性弱点,还能精确贯彻交易理念和策略,大幅提高交易效率。此外,在出现亏损或回撤时,量化投资模式还能够及时止损,有效规避市场风险”。

以去年“双11”为例,当日国内外期货夜盘出现极短时期内的巨幅震荡,多头空头都被打爆。由于商品期货的杠杆倍数一般在10倍左右,对满仓操作的人而言,盘中下跌10%就会使账户彻底归零。但即使如此,当时期货夜盘的“闪崩”,对诸多量化CTA私募基金造成的影响并不非常明显,不同私募基金的量化CTA产品微赚微亏都有,但回撤基本都控制在1%以内。

据张曦介绍,目前量化CTA基金中用得比较多的策略是趋势交易策略。趋势交易就是用大量各种策略模型寻找当前的市场趋势,判断多空;趋势策略可以说是无惧牛熊,只要有上涨或下跌的趋势性行情就能获利。这种策略在牛熊快速转换或者趋势明确时,优势非常大。但如果趋势不明显,或者是震荡市场,那么这种策略可能会因为来回不停地止损而出现回撤。

张曦表示,从国内外市场经验来看,最青睐管理期货基金产品的是FOF基金(专门投资其他基金的基金)等机构投资人。由于管理期货跟其他资产类别的低相关性,引入管理期货的资产配置可以非常有效改善收益率曲线。此外,个人投资者也可以配置管理期货类的产品,但是持有周期最好是一年以上。

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