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七月进出口增速为何回落

2017-08-09 04:33:35   中国青年网

8月8日,一艘班轮停靠在山东青岛港外贸集装箱码头。

俞方平摄(人民视觉)

海关总署8日公布了7月进出口数据。与上半年动辄超过20%的月度增速相比,11.2%的出口增速、14.7%的进口增速似乎显得有些不那么“漂亮”。7月进出口增速为何回落?下半年我国外贸发展将面临怎样的形势?

商务部研究院副研究员刘建颖指出,如果仅从增长数据上看,7月出口同比增长11.2%,与上半年出口增速(15.0%)相比下降3.8个百分点,创下了今年以来月度增速第二新低,如果除去2月份因春节因素导致的低值外则为今年以来最低;7月进口同比增长14.7%,同样创下今年以来新低,也远低于上半年25.7%的同比增长数。

“7月进出口增速放缓背后有两个直接原因,一是基数效应,二是人民币升值。”商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明指出,去年上半年外贸基数较低,但是下半年已经有企稳迹象,因此7月对应的基数已经抬高,对增速有一定影响。同时,去年下半年人民币贬值势头较大,今年则稳步升值,使得以人民币计价的贸易额涨幅有所收窄。

市场人士普遍认为,7月进出口增速双双放缓特别是进口增速回落幅度较大,也与国际大宗商品价格回落有关。

如果不看具体增速而看绝对值,7月份进出口总值2.32万亿元,仅次于5月和6月,位居今年以来月度第三位。海关总署综合统计司有关负责人表示,“7月增速回落是因为基数问题,量还是不错的。”

展望下半年外贸形势,白明认为,我国外贸在很大程度上受外部因素影响,下半年外贸形势可保持总体增长,但增长幅度可能下降,除去汇率、基数翘尾等因素,预计总体上和其他国家进出口增长平均水平接近。

刘建颖认为,我国外贸发展稳中向好的基本面没有改变,在不发生大的风险情况下,经过持续努力,进出口有望延续回稳向好的势头。但受基数效应及来自大宗商品价格的贡献将明显下降等因素影响,预计下半年我国进出口增幅有所收窄。

为实现对外贸易的持续健康发展,刘建颖建议,要更加注重培育以技术、品牌、质量、服务为核心的外贸竞争新优势,不断提高外贸发展质量效益。

(新华社北京8月8日电 记者林 晖 有之炘)

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