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“跌跌不休”的美元指数,正不断为反弹中的金价助力。统计显示,7月份国际金价涨幅达2.3%,美元指数全月跌幅则为2.9%。已连续三周下跌的美元指数,近期支撑国际金价反弹至两个月来的高位。然而,在美联储缩表计划或加快执行的背景下,业内人士认为,美国货币紧缩的周期性力量可能最终对美元形成支撑,此前持续反弹的金价在8月的上涨空间或有限。 7月份黄金市场的一大特征是:国际金价与美元指数的关系再次转向负相关性,此前的金价与美元指数同时下跌的情况明显改善。 “这主要是由于随着美元的持续贬值,国际主要商品价格开始持续上涨或反弹,国际大宗商品价格的普遍上涨对国际金价形成支撑所引发的。”民生银行(7.97-1.24%)金融市场部分析师汤湘滨对记者分析道。 回顾今年以来美元指数的走势,可见其已从最初的104附近下跌至目前的92,可谓相当疲弱。但也有投行认为,美元的颓势或已逐步接近尾声。 美林美银最新发布的观点认为,近一年来美元指数首次处于超卖状态,在这种状态下,美元指数短期内或将迅速反弹。 汤湘滨认为,目前美国处于加息和缩表的货币紧缩周期,理论上应该对美元形成支撑。今年美元指数持续下跌,是由于美国通胀低迷造成的。在美国经济乐观前景下降、通胀下行压力加大,但美联储将继续执行货币紧缩政策的背景下,弱势美元实际上是美国向全球输出通缩压力的一种方式。当美国通胀下行的压力放缓或企稳时,美联储收紧货币政策对美元的支撑将再次显现。 对于金价,尽管在8月的第一个交易日,国际现货金价盘中曾奋力跃至1270美元/盎司上方,但最终收盘仍回落至1267.68美元/盎司。截至记者发稿,8月2日亚盘国际金价报1265.4美元/盎司,持续在1270美元/盎司位置下方震荡。 中银国际期货的研报指出,黄金的下一步走势将受到本周五发布的美国非农就业数据的影响。若数据乐观,则美元会进一步走强,黄金将会受挫;反之,金价可能会大幅飙升。 但也有市场分析人士提醒,目前金价的上行动能有所衰退,在1280美元/盎司附近或存在较强的阻力,不排除有修正回落的可能性。 汤湘滨表示,8月美元汇率的下跌幅度有望放缓,因此预计国际金价在8月的续涨空间可能有限。他预判,国际金价仍将维持区间震荡的走势,且需注意金价在8月转向回落调整的风险。
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