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欧佩克释放延长减产信号 我国油价或迎年内第四次上调

2017-05-24 01:31:34   新华网

新华社上海5月23日电(记者刘雪)5月25日24时,我国将迎来今年以来第十个成品油调价时间窗口。业内专家表示,近期市场对即将召开的欧佩克会议预期乐观,国际油价不断上扬,我国成品油价格有望迎来年内第四次上调。

5月25日,欧佩克将召开会议商谈减产事宜。前期由于市场情绪比较悲观,对欧佩克议产前景并不看好,国际油价出现恐慌性下跌。5月上旬纽约原油期货价格和布伦特原油期货价格双双失守每桶50美元关口,其中,纽约油价一度跌至每桶45美元附近。

不过,在市场施压之下,近期沙特、俄罗斯等产油国纷纷表态支持延长减产协议,释放积极信号,国际油价开始由雨转晴。

截至5月22日收盘,纽约原油期货价格收报每桶50.73美元,布伦特原油期货价格收报每桶53.87美元,比5月4日创出的阶段低点分别上涨了11.5%和11.4%。

上海交通大学华信国际能源问题研究中心研究员由婷说,近期国际石油市场各个利益相关方不断吹风,最终消息仍需要等到欧佩克议产会议结束发布的正式声明为准。不过,当前国际油价出现回暖迹象,说明市场普遍预期欧佩克将延长减产时间,只是减产规模是否扩大、减产日期延长多久这些细节仍处在多方博弈之中。

厦门大学能源经济协同创新中心主任林伯强说,从供需基本面来看,市场需求在不断好转,近期国际油价反弹是有基础支撑的。

国际油价变化是我国成品油调价所参照的晴雨表。根据《石油价格管理办法》规定,国内汽、柴油价格根据国际市场原油价格变化每10个工作日调整一次,调价生效时间为调价发布日24时。当调价幅度低于每吨50元时,不作调整,纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。出现办法规定的特殊情形时,可以暂停、延迟调价,或缩小调价幅度。

上一轮我国成品油调价发生在5月11日24时,国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别降低250元和235元。按照定价机制推算,5月25日24时新一轮成品油调价时间窗口将到来。按照目前的国际油价走势来看,业内研究机构普遍预计我国成品油价格有望迎来年内第四轮上调。

今年以来,我国已经历了九轮成品油调价周期,其中包括三次上调、四次下跌、两次搁浅,汽、柴油价格累计分别下跌了每吨315元和300元。

根据国内现行成品油定价机制调价周期测算,6月9日24时将迎来2017年的第十一轮汽柴油调价节点。

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