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经济向好提升中国资产吸引力 国际投资者将更多投资中国市场

2017-09-15 07:01:45   中国经济网

中国经济快速复苏成为当前新兴市场的一抹亮色,带动了整体新兴市场经济体的发展。随着中国逐步放开资本市场和资本账户,未来国际投资者将有更多方式投资中国市场,全球主要大型主权银行、机构投资者的人民币账户规模也将大幅增长。

近期,经济增速超预期、人民币汇率企稳双向波动以及经济对外开放程度不断提升,使得中国资产日益受到海外投资者关注和青睐。

安本标准投资管理新兴市场资深经济学家艾利克斯·沃尔夫近期对中国经济的超预期表现作出了积极评价。他表示,中国经济快速复苏成为当前新兴市场的一抹亮色,带动了整体新兴市场经济体的发展。尽管多数经济学家和观察者认为今年中国市场以保持经济、金融市场稳定为主,但还是没想到中国能够取得如此优异的成绩。

沃尔夫表示,中国领导层有效应对了美国新政府带来的外部环境变化,同时在国内金融部门去杠杆、控制房价等防范金融风险方面也取得了显著的成果。值得关注的是,中国监管层在金融政策领域面临的挑战是前所未有的,同时面对改革货币政策工具、鼓励金融去杠杆和支持实体经济发展三大目标。然而,中国监管层很好完成了上述任务,在控制金融系统杠杆增速的同时,成功避免了因信贷增速下滑带来的经济增速放缓。

对于中国经济未来走势,有观点称中国经济增速将出现明显下降。但是,近期路透社分析认为,由于中国国内房地产也韧性十足,同时国际市场对中国出口产品需求强劲,中国经济将继续保持稳定增长。

文章认为,随着企业获利实现增长,中国政府整合重组工业部门的努力正在取得不错的成效,强劲的财政支出和持续的基础设施投资确保了内需持续坚挺。近期对制造业的调查显示,中国产品出厂价格继续强劲上涨,且随着新业务的迅猛增长,需求面也依然稳固。与此同时,出口也呈现反弹,即便考虑到人民币升值情况,1月份至7月份以美元计价的出口规模仍增长7%,一改此前两年的跌势。所有这些都意味着,中国经济很可能实现7年来的首次加速成长。

沃尔夫强调,随着人民币近期升值和上证综合指数的回升,海外投资者对中国资产的信心不断提升。人民币成为8月份表现最优异的货币,这也使得此前有关人民币持续贬值的预期逐步失去了市场。

路透社近期也刊文表示,人民币今年的劲升表现,拉抬了外资在中国股债市的买盘。中国交出了亮丽的经济数据,人民币对美元汇率也扳回去年贬值6.5%的跌幅。明晟MSCI决定将A股纳入旗下主要国际指数,以及美元走软,也为资金流入中国提供了助力。

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