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“哈维”飓风对美国经济影响几何

2017-09-07 06:47:07   中国经济网

在美国休斯敦,当地居民将清理出来的物品堆放在家门外。 (新华社发)

美国媒体称,“哈维”飓风是56年来得克萨斯州遭遇的最强风暴,预计将成为美国历史上经济损失最大的自然灾害之一。美国国家气象数据中心估算,“哈维”此次带来的经济损失将高达1600亿美元。机构分析认为,“哈维”飓风可能会令美国三季度GDP增速放缓0.2%,但是一旦飓风过去,商业投资和建筑活动的增加可能会抵消其对美国经济造成的负面影响。

截至当地时间9月4日,肆虐美国得克萨斯州的“哈维”飓风至少造成60多人丧生,9万幢房屋受损,大批民众无家可归。根据官方估计,在飓风中受损或被毁坏的汽车超过50万辆,1万多幢房屋严重受损,受灾程度远超2005年“卡特里娜”飓风和2012年“桑迪”飓风造成的灾害。美国国家气象数据中心估算,“哈维”此次带来的经济损失将高达1600亿美元。

由于“哈维”飓风造成了严重损失,特朗普总统赶赴灾区视察,慰问灾民。特朗普表示,联邦政府承诺将及时给予紧急援助,并希望能为灾后重建筹得更多资金。

“哈维”飓风给美国能源业造成了不可估量的损失。得州石油和天然气产量分别占全美产量的约三分之一和四分之一,炼油能力占全美三分之一,因此在美国经济中占有很重要的地位。《华尔街日报》报道称,猛烈的飓风袭击了得克萨斯州海岸,洪水破坏了美国11.2%的炼油能力以及墨西哥湾四分之一的石油产量,得克萨斯州沿海港口也被迫关闭。目前,埃克森美孚等能源企业已经关闭了相关设施,并预计至少需要数周炼油厂才能恢复全面生产。此外,占美国三分之一以上的化学品产能也被迫关停。高盛公司预计,“哈维”引起的炼油厂关闭可能影响到每日300万桶原油的精炼,约占原油精炼总产能的17%。由于投资者担忧飓风将在未来影响美国石油和天然气产量,国际油价因此显著上涨。国际市场上,美国原油期货价格一度激涨6.8%,创下两年以来新高。此外,这场飓风还导致全美很多地区汽油价格暴涨。

“哈维”飓风给美国股市带来的冲击也不可低估。来自华尔街的数据显示:“哈维”飓风造成的最终投保损失可能高达100亿美元至200亿美元。由于面临飓风带来的巨额财险理赔,保险公司的股价普遍遭受了冲击,股票集体下滑。另一方面,炼油股却因油价上涨而上涨,9月份交割的RBOB汽油期货一度大涨6.8%。由于飓风带来的冲击程度不同,当前纽约原油期货价格和布伦特原油期货价格之间的“价差”已达两年多来最高水平。据穆迪预估,受灾地区不少企业很可能因经济损失过重而就此关张。

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