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鸡蛋价格“上蹿下跳”难持久

2017-09-01 04:25:52   中国经济网

安徽当涂县护河镇青山蛋鸡养殖场养殖户将新鲜鸡蛋装筐准备销往市场。 王文生摄

8月30日,北京新发地农副产品批发市场散装鸡蛋价格为9.2元每公斤,比8月2日的8元每公斤上涨了15%,比7月19日6元每公斤更是大幅上涨53%。

“鸡蛋价格持续大幅上涨,使得目前蛋鸡养殖利润比较丰厚。”农业部禽蛋市场监测预警首席分析师张超说。

农业部监测数据显示,自7月底以来,全国鸡蛋零售价格持续上涨。8月份均价为每公斤8.81元,环比上涨15.3%。从周价格走势看,蛋价连续5周大幅上涨。其中,8月份第1周价格为每公斤8.12元,环比涨5.3%;第2周价格为每公斤8.59元,环比涨5.8%;第3周价格为每公斤9.06元,环比涨5.5%;第4周价格为每公斤9.47元,环比涨4.5%。10个鸡蛋主产省批发价为每公斤8.03元,环比涨31.4%。

鸡蛋价格为何大幅上涨?张超认为,8月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量12.19亿只,较7月份减少0.46%,较去年同期减少7.25%。持续半年的价格低迷也情绪性地推动了蛋价上涨。

“最近鸡蛋价格不错,不过销量与去年同期相比没有增加,甚至减少了一点。”北京新发地农副产品批发市场鸡蛋批发商李爱英说。她认为,鸡蛋销量减少是因为北京市外来人口减少。

历年入秋前鸡蛋价格上涨属于正常的季节性波动,但对近来鸡蛋价格的大涨,北京新发地农副产品批发市场统计部经理刘通很是担心。往年每逢农历七月,由于糕点厂要生产月饼,用蛋量会急剧增加,对鸡蛋价格产生比较明显的拉动作用。另外,由于夏季高温,蛋鸡产蛋量下降,鸡蛋价格会出现季节性上涨。今年农历闰六月,中秋节相应地推迟,按照往年规律,季节性上涨也会推迟。“鸡蛋价格出现大幅上涨,完全是外力在拉动。”刘通如是说。

据测算,鸡蛋批发价在5.6元每公斤时,蛋鸡养殖大致盈亏平衡。目前鸡蛋价格已经大幅高出盈亏平衡点。在丰厚利润的驱使下,一些养鸡场已开始集中、大批量补栏,雏鸡供不应求。河北省南和县蛋鸡养殖大户魏峰表示,现在雏鸡生意非常好,雏鸡订单都已排到两三个月以后。

业内有专家认为,近期鸡蛋价格大幅上涨最主要的推手是鸡蛋期货。许多商户按“鸡蛋价格指数网”的报价来制定价格,因此易出现人为操控。有的批发市场已经撤销了,但“鸡蛋价格指数网”依然有这个市场的报价。期货价格可以上蹿下跳,现货交易却没那么方便。从产地向市场运送鸡蛋,还没有到市场,价格可能就已大变。

“今年6月份以来,鸡蛋价格反复出现了几次‘上蹿下跳’行情,这种大幅波动与鸡蛋期货息息相关,但与生产、消费完全脱节。这种现象如果继续延续下去的话,会对鸡蛋生产造成严重伤害。鸡蛋价格这种短期大幅上涨前所未有,是难以持久的。”刘通建议养鸡场排除鸡蛋期货的干扰,不要急于扩充产能。

“在蛋价持续大幅上涨的影响下,月饼生产、蛋糕加工等企业开始提前备货。”由于季节性消费需求提前释放,张超担心中秋、国庆双节结束后,鸡蛋价格会显著回落。(经济日报记者 黄俊毅)

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