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机构预测8月PPI同比涨幅在5.5%-5.9%之间
2017-08-30 15:40:13 中国经济网
经济日报-中国经济网北京8月30日讯 今天,交通银行金融研究中心发布预测报告认为, 8月PPI同比涨幅在5.5%到5.9%之间,取中值为5.7%,比上个月有所上涨。
报告称,根据已公布的周频生产资料价格走势看,8月能源类、金属类、化工类产品价格都有上涨,有色金属价格涨幅较大,农资产品价格略有下降。对流通领域主要生产资料价格初步测算,有70%的产品价格上升,18%下降,12%基本持平。经过对9大类生产资料价格测算,黑色金属和有色金属环比涨幅达到8%、7.8%,石油天然气、化工产品、煤炭价格环比涨幅都超过了2.5%,非金属建材、农产品和林产品价格运行相对平稳。
综合各类工业产品价格走势,报告预计今年8月PPI环比涨幅加大,在0.2%到0.6%之间,涨幅为近6个月最大。去年8月PPI环比0.2%,可能不及今年8月环比涨幅,预示同比涨幅可能扩大。今年8月PPI翘尾因素为4.37%,比上个月略微下降0.2%,将缓解PPI同比增长幅度。
交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智对经济日报-中国经济网记者表示,近期PPI出现趋稳回升不具备可持续性,未来仍会有所下降。PPI翘尾因素快速下降,将成为影响PPI走弱的重要因素。随着实际需求缓慢走弱,PPI仍可能回落。去产能和环保限产带来供给收缩,对工业产品价格起到抬底作用。因此,未来PPI涨幅仍会回落,但近期不会跌入负值。
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