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专家预测8月CPI同比涨幅1.5%-1.7% 下半年通胀压力不大
2017-08-30 10:15:16 中国经济网
经济日报-中国经济网北京8月30日讯 今年夏天全国性高温天气影响了蔬菜等农产品的生产和供应,使得食用农产品价格出现了持续上涨。针对8月物价走势,交通银行金融研究中心首席宏观分析师唐建伟对经济日报-中国经济网记者表示,初步判断2017年8月份CPI同比涨幅可能在1.5-1.7%左右,同比涨幅小幅回升。消费物价短期回升主要是受天气影响,并不会影响物价的整体运行趋势,下半年通胀压力不大。
商务部公布的每周食用农产品价格指数显示,8月食用农产品价格出现了持续的小幅上涨。从国家统计局公布的50个城市主要食品平均价格旬度变动情况来看,8月上中旬主要食品价格也是涨多跌少。
根据以上数据,唐建伟预计,本月食品价格环比将结束此前的持续回落,出现明显的回升,预计上涨1.4个百分点左右。非食品价格方面,8月4日国内成品油价迎来过一次小幅度的上调。综合来看,预计本月非食品价格同比涨幅与上月相比也略有上涨。本月翘尾因素将从上月的0.96%小幅回落至0.9%。
唐建伟分析称,近期CPI重点构成部分来看,食品价格上涨主要受天气因素影响,非食品价格则整体平稳。下半年如果不出现大的外部因素的冲击,食品价格并不会出现明显的上涨,影响CPI同比走势的将主要是翘尾因素,而翘尾因素在6月份达到年内最高点的1.16%之后将会逐步走低。下半年CPI同比涨幅可能会略低于上半年,全年通胀压力不大。
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