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《2050年世界与中国能源展望》报告认为—— 清洁能源成我国新增能源主体
2017-08-19 04:21:50 中国经济网
经济日报北京8月18日讯 记者齐慧、实习生曹曼庭报道:近日,中国石油集团经济技术研究院发布2017版《2050年世界与中国能源展望》报告。报告认为,我国一次能源消费结构呈现清洁、低碳化特征,清洁能源是2030年前新增能源主体,2030年后逐步替代煤炭,2045年前后占比超过50%。
报告显示,世界一次能源需求持续增长,在2050年达到175亿吨油当量,相较2015年增长约27%,期间年均增长0.65%。其中2016年至2030年为0.95%,2031年至2050年为0.45%,增速逐渐放缓。中国一次能源需求增长同样逐步减缓,并将于2040年前后达到58亿吨标煤(40.6亿吨标油)的峰值水平,而化石能源需求则将于2030年达峰。
报告指出,我国能源需求结构将顺应全球发展趋势,不断向清洁、低碳化发展。煤炭占比稳步下降,2030年和2050年分别为47.1%和32.4%。2030年后清洁能源逐步替代煤炭,其中非化石能源占比增幅较大,2030年和2050年分别达到20.4%和35%,天然气占比将稳步上升,2040年前后超过石油,2050年达到17.6%。
对于2050年前的世界能源市场,中国石油集团经济技术研究院能源产业分析师刘畅认为,世界能源已进入转型发展的新阶段,多元、低碳、清洁、高效、安全是必然的发展趋势。基准情景下,能源全行业技术快速发展,能效水平稳步提升,新能源成本不断下降;新的商业模式使更多的人消费能源更为便利,推动能源分布式发展。短期能源市场供需宽松的格局难以转变,可再生能源对化石能源的替代性不断提升,化石能源面临巨大挑战。城镇化与电气化持续推进,电力发展前景良好。
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