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经济日报:英国央行难以“更为积极”

2017-08-16 07:14:01   中国经济网

英国央行的鹰派声音并没有得到宏观数据的支撑。尽管二季度英国经济增速有所改善,但下半年英国经济再度走软迹象明显。这一预期也导致市场对英镑看空态度明显。

尽管英格兰银行最新货币政策会议决定维持当前利率水平不变,但是其内部鹰派近期仍频繁吹风表示未来有必要采取“更为积极”的态度。然而,随着一系列最新宏观数据的公布,鹰派声音遭到了市场各方质疑。

在6月份“鹰派三剑客”之一的克丽斯廷·福布斯退出货币政策委员会之后,货币政策委员迈克尔·桑德斯和伊恩·麦卡弗蒂成为8月份会议上仅有的两名鹰派代表。

日前,桑德斯表示英国央行未来需要在货币政策上更为积极。他表示,虽然当前英国居民消费下滑,但是海外贸易和投资能够弥补经济动力的不足。英国经济整体稳健,能够支撑加息。

相比经济增速,通胀成为央行鹰派更为关注的重点。当前,英国央行密切关注劳动力市场。数据显示,近年来英国就业增长中90%的劳动力供给来自外来移民。庞大的外来移民劳动力供给使得英国国内失业率下降,实际工资增长疲弱。但是,脱欧的临近正在打破这一平衡。

桑德斯表示,在经历了多年扩张之后,英国失业率已经下降至40年来的最低水平,经济剩余产能接近枯竭。一旦未来欧盟劳动力供给下滑,经济扩张将带来劳动力市场收紧和工资通胀压力进一步上升,本已受到冲击的居民消费将再次面临打击。因此,如果未来英国经济增速加快,英国央行应该及早推动货币政策正常化。

然而,英国央行的鹰派声音并没有得到宏观数据的支撑。英国国家统计局最新公布的工业产出数据显示,虽然6月份工业产出月度增幅为0.5%,为半年来最高,但难改上半年总体工业产出萎缩态势。数据显示,除了4月份和6月份工业产出环比正增长外,其他月份均呈现不同程度的负增长。

对于6月份超出预期的工业产出增长,舆论也表示前景不容乐观。因为,英国汽车产量下降和建筑业产出下滑,这意味着未来数月的经济状况不容乐观。

与此同时,市场发现英国消费和投资态势短期改善的可能性很低。最新民调显示,7月份消费信心相比6月份有了微弱提升,但是仍处于2014年底以来的最低水平,而且消费信心连续两月低位徘徊也是自国际金融危机以来首次出现。

在一项企业信心调查中,英国企业整体对经济前景的信心创下6个月最低,且处于历史均值之下。受调查企业的投资和招工力度都出现了不同程度下降。

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